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Bundesliga

Referee: F Badstübner

Union Berlin

T S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Mainz

U U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,5

3,2

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 47%

61%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 59%

56%

61%

Average goals

2,9

3,1

Scored

1,7

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,11 xG 1,34

51% Possession 49%

9 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Union Berlin 2. · Mainz 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	18	10	7	1	+36	+1.4	37
2	Union Berlin	18	11	3	4	+9	+2.9	36
3	RB Leipzig	18	10	5	3	+15	+1.4	35
4	Dortmund	18	11	1	6	+8	+0.6	34
5	Freiburg	18	10	4	4	+4	-0.2	34
6	Ein Frankfurt	18	9	5	4	+11	-3.4	32
7	Wolfsburg	18	8	5	5	+14	+3.5	29
8	M'gladbach	18	7	4	7	+5	-1.8	25
9	Leverkusen	19	7	3	9	-1	+2.6	24
10	Werder Bremen	18	7	3	8	-8	-1.9	24
11	Mainz	18	6	5	7	-3	-0.3	23
12	FC Koln	18	5	7	6	-2	+1.4	22
13	Augsburg	19	6	3	10	-9	-0.5	21
14	Hoffenheim	18	5	4	9	-5	-0.5	19
15	Stuttgart	18	3	7	8	-10	-0.1	16
16	Bochum	18	5	1	12	-25	-0.8	16
17	Hertha	18	3	5	10	-12	-4.1	14
18	Schalke 04	18	2	4	12	-27	-0.4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	7	2	0	+15	-0.6	23
2	Union Berlin	8	6	2	0	+10	+1.9	20
3	Freiburg	9	6	2	1	+9	+1.8	20
4	Bayern Munich	9	5	4	0	+20	+1.5	19
5	Dortmund	8	6	1	1	+11	+1.2	19
6	M'gladbach	9	6	0	3	+9	-1.0	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	9	5	1	3	+8	-0.7	16
8	Wolfsburg	8	4	3	1	+11	+2.0	15
9	FC Koln	8	4	2	2	+8	+2.9	14
10	Leverkusen	10	4	2	4	+6	+1.8	14
11	Werder Bremen	10	4	1	5	+1	+1.0	13
12	Bochum	8	4	1	3	-3	+0.6	13
13	Stuttgart	9	3	3	3	+1	+0.4	12
14	Hoffenheim	10	3	2	5	-4	+1.4	11
15	Augsburg	10	3	2	5	-6	+0.8	11
16	Mainz	9	2	4	3	+1	+0.2	10
17	Hertha	10	2	4	4	-6	-3.5	10
18	Schalke 04	10	2	2	6	-15	-1.1	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	5	3	1	+16	-0.1	18
2	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	4	1	+3	-2.6	16
3	Union Berlin	10	5	1	4	-1	+1.1	16
4	Dortmund	10	5	0	5	-3	-0.6	15
5	Wolfsburg	10	4	2	4	+3	+1.5	14
6	Freiburg	9	4	2	3	-5	-2.0	14
7	Mainz	9	4	1	4	-4	-0.4	13
8	RB Leipzig	9	3	3	3	+0	+2.0	12
9	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-9	-2.9	11
10	Augsburg	9	3	1	5	-3	-1.3	10
11	Leverkusen	9	3	1	5	-7	+0.8	10
12	Hoffenheim	8	2	2	4	-1	-1.9	8
13	FC Koln	10	1	5	4	-10	-1.5	8
14	M'gladbach	9	1	4	4	-4	-0.7	7
15	Hertha	8	1	1	6	-6	-0.6	4
16	Stuttgart	9	0	4	5	-11	-0.5	4
17	Bochum	10	1	0	9	-22	-1.3	3
18	Schalke 04	8	0	2	6	-12	+0.7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.