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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

Dortmund

S S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Freiburg

T T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

5,3

2,3

Scored

4,0

0,7

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,7

-1,0

This season — Bundesliga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 48%

57%

39%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

87%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

4,2

2,8

Scored

2,8

1,3

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

64% Possession 36%

16 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

5 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 3. · Freiburg 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	23	15	4	4	+39	49
2	RB Leipzig	23	14	6	3	+36	48
3	Dortmund	23	13	6	4	+33	45
4	M'gladbach	22	13	4	5	+18	43
5	Leverkusen	23	13	4	6	+11	43
6	Schalke 04	23	9	9	5	+0	36
7	Wolfsburg	23	9	7	7	+4	34
8	Hoffenheim	23	10	4	9	-2	34
9	Freiburg	23	9	6	8	-2	33
10	Union Berlin	23	9	2	12	-7	29
11	Ein Frankfurt	23	8	4	11	+1	28
12	Augsburg	23	7	6	10	-13	27
13	Hertha	24	7	6	11	-16	27
14	FC Koln	22	8	2	12	-9	26
15	Mainz	23	7	1	15	-21	22
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	24	5	6	13	-23	21
17	Werder Bremen	23	4	5	14	-28	17
18	Paderborn	23	4	4	15	-21	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	11	8	3	0	+30	27
2	Bayern Munich	12	8	2	2	+25	26
3	M'gladbach	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	RB Leipzig	11	7	3	1	+19	24
5	Leverkusen	12	6	4	2	+8	22
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	6	3	3	+11	21
7	Schalke 04	12	5	5	2	+0	20
8	Augsburg	11	5	3	3	+4	18
9	Union Berlin	11	6	0	5	+2	18
10	Wolfsburg	12	4	5	3	+3	17
11	Freiburg	11	5	2	4	+0	17
12	FC Koln	11	5	1	5	+1	16
13	Hoffenheim	12	5	1	6	-6	16
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	3	3	6	-10	12
15	Hertha	12	3	2	7	-14	11
16	Mainz	11	3	1	7	-8	10
17	Paderborn	12	2	1	9	-13	7
18	Werder Bremen	11	1	2	8	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	12	7	3	2	+17	24
2	Bayern Munich	11	7	2	2	+14	23
3	Leverkusen	11	7	0	4	+3	21
4	Hoffenheim	11	5	3	3	+4	18
5	Dortmund	12	5	3	4	+3	18
6	M'gladbach	11	5	2	4	+4	17
7	Wolfsburg	11	5	2	4	+1	17
8	Schalke 04	11	4	4	3	+0	16
9	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	16
10	Freiburg	12	4	4	4	-2	16
11	Werder Bremen	12	3	3	6	-10	12
12	Mainz	12	4	0	8	-13	12
13	Union Berlin	12	3	2	7	-9	11
14	FC Koln	11	3	1	7	-10	10
15	Paderborn	11	2	3	6	-8	9
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	2	3	7	-13	9
17	Augsburg	12	2	3	7	-17	9
18	Ein Frankfurt	11	2	1	8	-10	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.