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Bundesliga
Referee: T Stieler
RB Leipzig
S U S S T
2–2
Full-time
M'gladbach
T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,8
2,3
Scored
2,5
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 19/19 matches
Win Ø 63%
63%
63%
Points per game
2,1
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
79%
63%
Both score Ø 66%
74%
58%
Average goals
3,9
3,0
Scored
2,7
1,9
Conceded
1,2
1,1
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

63% Possession 37%
18 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 7
4 Corners 4
1 Offside 3
12 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match RB Leipzig 2. · M'gladbach 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 20 13 3 4 +35 42
2 RB Leipzig 19 12 4 3 +28 40
3 Dortmund 20 11 6 3 +28 39
4 M'gladbach 19 12 2 5 +15 38
5 Leverkusen 20 10 4 6 +7 34
6 Schalke 04 20 9 7 4 +5 34
7 Hoffenheim 20 10 3 7 +0 33
8 Freiburg 19 8 5 6 +3 29
9 Augsburg 20 7 5 8 -6 26
10 Ein Frankfurt 20 7 4 9 +1 25
11 Wolfsburg 19 6 6 7 -3 24
12 Union Berlin 20 7 2 11 -9 23
13 Hertha 20 6 5 9 -10 23
14 FC Koln 19 6 2 11 -15 20
15 Mainz 20 6 0 14 -19 18
16 Werder Bremen 20 4 5 11 -21 17
17 Fortuna Dusseldorf 20 4 4 12 -22 16
18 Paderborn 19 4 3 12 -17 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

RB Leipzig M'gladbach
18′
🟨 Florian Neuhaus
24′
A. Pléa 0–1
O. Wendt
29′
🔁 T. Strobl
↦ C. Kramer
35′
J. Hofmann 0–2
F. Neuhaus
Half-time 0–2
P. Schick 🔁
↦ N. Mukiele
46′
Y. Poulsen 🔁
↦ E. Forsberg
46′
1–2 P. Schick
50′
60′
🟨 Alassane Pléa
60′
🟨 Alassane Pléa
60′
🟥 Alassane Pléa
61′
🟨 Nico Elvedi
63′
🔁 B. Embolo
↦ M. Thuram
69′
🟨 Breel Embolo
Daniel Olmo 🔁
↦ T. Adams
69′
Timo Werner 🟨
73′
2–2 C. Nkunku
89′
96′
🔁 F. Johnson
↦ F. Neuhaus
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1
1 P. Gulácsi G
23 M. Halstenberg D
16 L. Klostermann D
22 N. Mukiele D
5 D. Upamecano D
10 E. Forsberg M
7 M. Sabitzer M
27 K. Laimer M
18 C. Nkunku M
14 T. Adams M
11 T. Werner F
Bench (9)
21 P. Schick
9 Y. Poulsen
25 Daniel Olmo
19 H. Wolf
53 T. Krauß
8 A. Haidara
26 E. Ampadu
28 Y. Mvogo
17 A. Lookman

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

M'gladbach

3-4-1-2
1 Y. Sommer G
17 O. Wendt M
18 S. Lainer M
28 M. Ginter D
30 N. Elvedi D
6 C. Kramer M
23 J. Hofmann F
32 F. Neuhaus M
8 D. Zakaria D
14 A. Pléa F
10 M. Thuram F
Bench (8)
5 T. Strobl
36 B. Embolo
19 F. Johnson
16 I. Traoré
7 P. Herrmann
11 Raffael
21 T. Sippel
13 L. Stindl

Coach: M. Rose

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,53
U ✓
4,57
B
5,64
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,45
U2,5
2,73
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.