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Bundesliga

Referee: F Zwayer

M'gladbach

S T S U T

3–1

Full-time

Mainz

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

M'gladbach Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 47%

61%

33%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

61%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

56%

61%

Average goals

2,9

3,7

Scored

1,8

1,4

Conceded

1,1

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

71% Possession 29%

15 Shots 12

5 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 2

8 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 3

5 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match M'gladbach 4. · Mainz 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	18	12	4	2	+30	40
2	Bayern Munich	18	11	3	4	+28	36
3	Dortmund	19	10	6	3	+23	36
4	M'gladbach	18	11	2	5	+13	35
5	Schalke 04	18	9	6	3	+10	33
6	Leverkusen	18	9	4	5	+5	31
7	Freiburg	18	8	5	5	+5	29
8	Hoffenheim	18	8	3	7	-4	27
9	Wolfsburg	18	6	6	6	-2	24
10	Augsburg	18	6	5	7	-5	23
11	Ein Frankfurt	18	6	3	9	-1	21
12	Union Berlin	18	6	2	10	-6	20
13	FC Koln	19	6	2	11	-15	20
14	Hertha	18	5	4	9	-11	19
15	Mainz	18	6	0	12	-15	18
16	Werder Bremen	18	4	5	9	-17	17
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	18	4	3	11	-19	15
18	Paderborn	18	3	3	12	-19	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Dortmund	9	6	3	0	+21	21
3	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+16	20
4	Bayern Munich	9	6	1	2	+19	19
5	Schalke 04	10	5	4	1	+5	19
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Union Berlin	9	5	0	4	+1	15
8	Augsburg	9	4	2	3	+3	14
9	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Leverkusen	9	3	4	2	+2	13
11	FC Koln	9	4	1	4	+0	13
12	Wolfsburg	9	3	4	2	+0	13
13	Hoffenheim	10	4	1	5	-6	13
14	Hertha	9	3	1	5	-7	10
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	1	5	-7	10
16	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-6	9
17	Paderborn	10	2	1	7	-10	7
18	Werder Bremen	8	1	2	5	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+14	20
2	Leverkusen	9	6	0	3	+3	18
3	Bayern Munich	9	5	2	2	+9	17
4	Dortmund	10	4	3	3	+2	15
5	Freiburg	10	4	3	3	+2	15
6	Schalke 04	8	4	2	2	+5	14
7	Hoffenheim	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	M'gladbach	9	4	1	4	+1	13
9	Werder Bremen	10	3	3	4	-6	12
10	Wolfsburg	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Hertha	9	2	3	4	-4	9
12	Augsburg	9	2	3	4	-8	9
13	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-9	9
14	FC Koln	10	2	1	7	-15	7
15	Ein Frankfurt	9	2	0	7	-6	6
16	Union Berlin	9	1	2	6	-7	5
17	Paderborn	8	1	2	5	-9	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	1	2	6	-12	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.