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Premier League
Referee: R Jones
Brentford
S T S U U
5–2
Full-time
Leeds
U S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Leeds
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
2,0
1,8
Conceded
1,2
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,8
This season — Premier League · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 30%
20%
40%
Points per game
1,2
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
60%
60%
Both score Ø 70%
80%
60%
Average goals
3,4
2,6
Scored
2,0
1,6
Conceded
1,4
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

31% Possession 69%
14 Shots 17
8 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
2 Corners 6
1 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Brentford 11. · Leeds 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Arsenal 5 5 0 0 +9 15
2 Man City 5 4 1 0 +14 13
3 Tottenham 5 3 2 0 +6 11
4 Brighton 5 3 1 1 +3 10
5 Liverpool 6 2 3 1 +9 9
6 Man United 5 3 0 2 -2 9
7 Leeds 5 2 2 1 +3 8
8 Fulham 5 2 2 1 +1 8
9 Southampton 5 2 1 2 -2 7
10 Chelsea 5 2 1 2 -2 7
11 Brentford 5 1 3 1 +3 6
12 Newcastle 5 1 3 1 +1 6
13 Crystal Palace 5 1 2 2 -2 5
14 Everton 6 0 4 2 -2 4
15 West Ham 5 1 1 3 -4 4
16 Nott'm Forest 5 1 1 3 -9 4
17 Bournemouth 5 1 1 3 -14 4
18 Wolves 5 0 3 2 -2 3
19 Aston Villa 5 1 0 4 -5 3
20 Leicester 5 0 1 4 -5 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Brentford Leeds
Ivan Toney ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
26′
28′
🟨 Luis Sinisterra
1–0 I. Toney
30′
2–0 I. Toney
43′
Half-time 2–1
46′
L. Sinisterra 2–1
46′
🔁 P. Bamford
↦ J. Harrison
3–1 I. Toney
58′
J. Dasilva 🔁
↦ K. Lewis-Potter
59′
F. Onyeka 🔁
↦ S. Baptiste
59′
59′
🔁 M. Klich
↦ J. Gelhardt
59′
🔁 C. Summerville
↦ L. Sinisterra
M. Jørgensen 🔁
↦ V. Janelt
67′
70′
🔁 L. Ayling
↦ C. Drameh
79′
Marc Roca 3–2
L. Ayling
4–2 B. Mbeumo
80′
Bryan Mbeumo ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
81′
Y. Wissa 🔁
↦ B. Mbeumo
83′
M. Damsgaard 🔁
↦ M. Jensen
83′
86′
🔁 S. Greenwood
↦ Marc Roca
5–2 Y. Wissa
91′
Mikkel Damsgaard 🟨
95′
Aaron Hickey 🟨
97′
97′
🟨 Mateusz Klich
Full-time 5–2

Line-ups

Brentford

4-3-3
1 David Raya G
2 A. Hickey D
18 P. Jansson D
16 B. Mee D
3 R. Henry D
26 S. Baptiste M
27 V. Janelt M
8 M. Jensen M
19 B. Mbeumo F
17 I. Toney F
23 K. Lewis-Potter F
Bench (9)
10 J. Dasilva
15 F. Onyeka
13 M. Jørgensen
11 Y. Wissa
24 M. Damsgaard
30 M. Rasmussen
14 S. Ghoddos
20 K. Ajer
22 T. Strakosha

Coach: T. Frank

Leeds

4-2-3-1
1 I. Meslier G
37 C. Drameh D
5 R. Koch D
14 Diego Llorente D
21 P. Struijk D
12 T. Adams M
8 Marc Roca M
23 L. Sinisterra M
7 B. Aaronson M
11 J. Harrison M
30 J. Gelhardt F
Bench (9)
9 P. Bamford
43 M. Klich
10 C. Summerville
2 L. Ayling
42 S. Greenwood
33 L. Hjelde
4 A. Forshaw
6 L. Cooper
13 K. Klaesson

Coach: J. Marsch

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,17
U
3,59
B
3,33
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,75
U2,5
2,10
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

R Jones · 186 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,07 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.