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Premier League

Referee: J Moss

Chelsea

S S S T S

2–4

Full-time

Arsenal

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,0

Scored

2,7

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 58%

60%

55%

Points per game

2,1

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

52%

Both score Ø 41%

47%

35%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

2,1

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

68% Possession 32%

11 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 3

6 Corners 1

1 Offside 4

7 Free kicks against 6

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	32	23	7	2	+61	76
2	Man City	31	23	5	3	+52	74
3	Chelsea	30	18	8	4	+41	62
4	Tottenham	32	18	3	11	+18	57
5	Arsenal	31	17	3	11	+8	54
6	Man United	33	15	9	9	+4	54
7	West Ham	33	15	7	11	+9	52
8	Wolves	32	15	4	13	+5	49
9	Leicester	30	11	7	12	-4	40
10	Brighton	32	9	13	10	-8	40
11	Brentford	33	11	6	16	-8	39
12	Southampton	32	9	12	11	-14	39
13	Crystal Palace	31	8	13	10	+3	37
14	Newcastle	32	9	10	13	-19	37
15	Aston Villa	31	11	3	17	-4	36
16	Leeds	32	8	9	15	-30	33
17	Everton	30	8	4	18	-19	28
18	Burnley	31	4	13	14	-19	25
19	Watford	32	6	4	22	-32	22
20	Norwich	32	5	6	21	-44	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+36	42
2	Man City	15	11	2	2	+30	35
3	Arsenal	16	10	2	4	+11	32
4	Tottenham	16	10	1	5	+13	31
5	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Man United	17	9	4	4	+7	31
7	Leicester	15	8	3	4	+6	27
8	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+15	26
9	Southampton	17	6	7	4	+1	25
10	Newcastle	16	6	6	4	-3	24
11	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
12	Crystal Palace	16	5	7	4	+8	22
13	Everton	15	7	1	7	+1	22
14	Brentford	16	6	2	8	-1	20
15	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-1	18
16	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
17	Burnley	15	3	6	6	-7	15
18	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
19	Norwich	16	3	3	10	-19	12
20	Watford	16	2	1	13	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Chelsea	16	11	3	2	+26	36
3	Liverpool	16	10	4	2	+25	34
4	Tottenham	16	8	2	6	+5	26
5	Wolves	16	8	2	6	+3	26
6	Brighton	16	6	7	3	+2	25
7	Man United	16	6	5	5	-3	23
8	Arsenal	15	7	1	7	-3	22
9	West Ham	16	6	3	7	+1	21
10	Brentford	17	5	4	8	-7	19
11	Aston Villa	16	6	0	10	-3	18
12	Leeds	16	4	4	8	-18	16
13	Crystal Palace	15	3	6	6	-5	15
14	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
15	Southampton	15	3	5	7	-15	14
16	Leicester	15	3	4	8	-10	13
17	Newcastle	16	3	4	9	-16	13
18	Burnley	16	1	7	8	-12	10
19	Norwich	16	2	3	11	-25	9
20	Everton	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.