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Premier League
Referee: S Attwell
Arsenal
S S U T T
4–2
Full-time
Leeds
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Leeds
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
1,2
1,3
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,0
This season — Premier League · 23/22 matches
Win Ø 42%
39%
45%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
52%
64%
Both score Ø 47%
39%
55%
Average goals
2,2
3,5
Scored
1,2
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

45% Possession 55%
13 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 17
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Arsenal 11. · Leeds 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 23 16 5 2 +32 53
2 Man United 24 13 7 4 +19 46
3 Leicester 24 14 4 6 +16 46
4 Liverpool 24 11 7 6 +13 40
5 Chelsea 23 11 6 6 +14 39
6 West Ham 23 11 6 6 +6 39
7 Everton 21 11 4 6 +6 37
8 Aston Villa 22 11 3 8 +12 36
9 Tottenham 23 10 6 7 +11 36
10 Leeds 22 10 2 10 +0 32
11 Arsenal 23 9 4 10 +4 31
12 Wolves 24 8 6 10 -7 30
13 Southampton 23 8 5 10 -9 29
14 Crystal Palace 24 8 5 11 -15 29
15 Brighton 24 5 11 8 -5 26
16 Burnley 23 7 5 11 -12 26
17 Newcastle 23 7 4 12 -13 25
18 Fulham 22 2 9 11 -14 15
19 West Brom 24 2 7 15 -36 13
20 Sheffield United 23 3 2 18 -22 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

22. Nov -20 Leeds – Arsenal 0–0

Match report

Arsenal Leeds
1–0 P. Aubameyang
G. Xhaka
13′
Bukayo Saka ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
34′
2–0 P. Aubameyang
41′
3–0 Bellerín
Dani Ceballos
45′
Half-time 3–0
46′
🔁 T. Roberts
↦ M. Klich
46′
🔁 Hélder Costa
↦ J. Harrison
4–0 P. Aubameyang
E. Smith Rowe
47′
53′
🔁 N. Huggins
↦ E. Alioski
58′
P. Struijk 4–1
Raphinha
Willian 🔁
↦ E. Smith Rowe
62′
69′
Hélder Costa 4–2
T. Roberts
70′
🟨 Pascal Struijk
Mohamed Elneny 🔁
↦ M. Ødegaard
78′
R. Holding 🔁
↦ Dani Ceballos
89′
90′
🟨 Stuart Dallas
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1
1 B. Leno G
23 David Luiz D
17 Cédric Soares D
2 Bellerín D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
34 G. Xhaka M
11 M. Ødegaard M
8 Dani Ceballos M
32 E. Smith Rowe M
7 B. Saka M
14 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (9)
12 Willian
25 Mohamed Elneny
16 R. Holding
33 M. Ryan
22 Pablo Marí
19 N. Pépé
21 C. Chambers
9 A. Lacazette
35 Martinelli

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Leeds

4-1-4-1
1 I. Meslier G
6 L. Cooper D
2 L. Ayling D
15 S. Dallas M
21 P. Struijk M
43 M. Klich M
22 J. Harrison M
46 J. Shackleton D
10 E. Alioski D
9 P. Bamford F
18 Raphinha M
Bench (9)
11 T. Roberts
17 Hélder Costa
52 N. Huggins
13 Kiko Casilla
47 J. Jenkins
35 C. Cresswell
19 Pablo Hernández
30 J. Gelhardt
24 L. Davis

Coach: M. Bielsa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,89
U
3,77
B
3,98
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,59
U2,5
2,38
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Attwell · 153 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,6 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.