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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Arsenal

S S T S T

1–2

Full-time

Brighton

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,0

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,3

0,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,7

This season — Premier League · 29/30 matches

Win Ø 41%

59%

23%

Points per game

1,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

52%

23%

Both score Ø 41%

34%

47%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

20 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

11 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 19

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arsenal 5. · Brighton 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	30	23	4	3	+52	73
2	Liverpool	30	22	6	2	+57	72
3	Chelsea	29	17	8	4	+35	59
4	Tottenham	30	17	3	10	+15	54
5	Arsenal	29	17	3	9	+10	54
6	West Ham	31	15	6	10	+11	51
7	Man United	31	14	9	8	+7	51
8	Wolves	32	15	4	13	+5	49
9	Crystal Palace	30	8	13	9	+4	37
10	Leicester	28	10	7	11	-4	37
11	Aston Villa	30	11	3	16	+0	36
12	Southampton	30	8	12	10	-9	36
13	Brighton	30	7	13	10	-10	34
14	Newcastle	31	8	10	13	-20	34
15	Brentford	31	9	6	16	-11	33
16	Leeds	31	7	9	15	-33	30
17	Everton	30	8	4	18	-19	28
18	Burnley	29	4	12	13	-17	24
19	Watford	30	6	4	20	-28	22
20	Norwich	30	4	6	20	-45	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	15	12	3	0	+32	39
2	Man City	14	11	1	2	+30	34
3	Arsenal	15	10	2	3	+12	32
4	Tottenham	15	10	1	4	+14	31
5	West Ham	16	9	3	4	+8	30
6	Man United	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	Chelsea	14	7	5	2	+15	26
8	Leicester	14	7	3	4	+5	24
9	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
10	Crystal Palace	16	5	7	4	+8	22
11	Southampton	15	5	7	3	+6	22
12	Everton	15	7	1	7	+1	22
13	Newcastle	15	5	6	4	-4	21
14	Aston Villa	14	5	3	6	+3	18
15	Brentford	15	5	2	8	-3	17
16	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
17	Burnley	15	3	6	6	-7	15
18	Brighton	16	3	6	7	-10	15
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-21	9
20	Watford	14	2	1	11	-20	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Liverpool	15	10	3	2	+25	33
3	Chelsea	15	10	3	2	+20	33
4	Wolves	16	8	2	6	+3	26
5	Man United	15	6	5	4	+1	23
6	Tottenham	15	7	2	6	+1	23
7	Arsenal	14	7	1	6	-2	22
8	West Ham	15	6	3	6	+3	21
9	Brighton	14	4	7	3	+0	19
10	Aston Villa	16	6	0	10	-3	18
11	Brentford	16	4	4	8	-8	16
12	Crystal Palace	14	3	6	5	-4	15
13	Watford	16	4	3	9	-8	15
14	Southampton	15	3	5	7	-15	14
15	Leicester	14	3	4	7	-9	13
16	Newcastle	16	3	4	9	-16	13
17	Leeds	15	3	4	8	-21	13
18	Burnley	14	1	6	7	-10	9
19	Norwich	15	2	3	10	-24	9
20	Everton	15	1	3	11	-20	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.