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Championship

Referee: Tom Nield

Swansea

T S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Birmingham

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 35%

35%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

46%

54%

Both score Ø 56%

54%

58%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,60 xG 1,02

50% Possession 50%

19 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 1

8 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 17. · Birmingham 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	27	16	7	4	+29	+21.0	55
2	Ipswich	26	13	8	5	+21	+21.8	47
3	Millwall	26	13	7	6	+0	+2.9	46
4	Preston	27	11	10	6	+10	-4.3	43
5	Middlesbrough	24	12	6	6	+5	+6.7	42
6	Stoke	27	12	5	10	+9	-3.7	41
7	Watford	26	11	8	7	+6	+6.3	41
8	Hull	24	12	5	7	+4	-14.1	41
9	Bristol City	27	11	7	9	+9	-0.2	40
10	Wrexham	27	10	10	7	+5	-4.9	40
11	QPR	27	11	6	10	-1	+1.4	39
12	Derby	27	10	8	9	+1	-5.2	38
13	Leicester	27	10	7	10	-2	-9.8	37
14	Birmingham	26	9	7	10	-1	+10.1	34
15	Southampton	25	8	8	9	+3	+11.8	32
16	Sheffield United	26	10	2	14	-3	+11.9	32
17	Swansea	26	9	5	12	-6	-8.2	32
18	Charlton	26	8	8	10	-6	-8.5	32
19	West Brom	27	9	4	14	-7	+4.9	31
20	Blackburn	26	7	7	12	-9	+5.0	28
21	Portsmouth	25	7	7	11	-13	-6.4	28
22	Norwich	27	7	6	14	-10	-9.4	27
23	Oxford	26	5	8	13	-10	-6.3	23
24	Sheffield Weds	26	1	8	17	-34	-22.8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	13	10	2	1	+19	+10.6	32
2	Ipswich	14	9	4	1	+16	+18.1	31
3	Watford	14	8	4	2	+9	+6.9	28
4	Birmingham	13	7	5	1	+14	+14.5	26
5	Millwall	13	8	2	3	+2	+4.3	26
6	Middlesbrough	12	7	3	2	+5	+1.7	24
7	QPR	13	7	2	4	+7	+7.5	23
8	Preston	14	6	5	3	+6	-0.2	23
9	Wrexham	14	6	5	3	+4	+5.2	23
10	Hull	12	7	2	3	+3	-3.2	23
11	Leicester	13	6	4	3	+4	+1.4	22
12	West Brom	13	6	4	3	+4	+7.9	22
13	Bristol City	14	6	3	5	+8	+0.2	21
14	Stoke	13	6	3	4	+8	+0.8	21
15	Charlton	12	6	3	3	+2	-1.8	21
16	Swansea	13	6	3	4	+0	-2.0	21
17	Southampton	12	5	4	3	+5	+9.3	19
18	Portsmouth	13	5	3	5	+0	+1.5	18
19	Sheffield United	12	5	2	5	+5	+11.8	17
20	Derby	14	4	5	5	-3	+0.2	17
21	Oxford	13	3	5	5	-4	+1.0	14
22	Blackburn	13	2	4	7	-7	+4.8	10
23	Norwich	13	3	1	9	-7	-1.2	10
24	Sheffield Weds	14	0	4	10	-23	-10.5	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	14	6	5	3	+10	+10.4	23
2	Derby	13	6	3	4	+4	-5.4	21
3	Preston	13	5	5	3	+4	-4.2	20
4	Stoke	14	6	2	6	+1	-4.5	20
5	Millwall	13	5	5	3	-2	-1.3	20
6	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	+1	-0.4	19
7	Hull	12	5	3	4	+1	-10.9	18
8	Middlesbrough	12	5	3	4	+0	+4.9	18
9	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	-2	+0.3	18
10	Wrexham	13	4	5	4	+1	-10.2	17
11	Norwich	14	4	5	5	-3	-8.1	17
12	Ipswich	12	4	4	4	+5	+3.7	16
13	QPR	14	4	4	6	-8	-6.2	16
14	Leicester	14	4	3	7	-6	-11.1	15
15	Sheffield United	14	5	0	9	-8	+0.2	15
16	Southampton	13	3	4	6	-2	+2.5	13
17	Watford	12	3	4	5	-3	-0.6	13
18	Swansea	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.1	11
19	Charlton	14	2	5	7	-8	-6.6	11
20	Portsmouth	12	2	4	6	-13	-7.9	10
21	Oxford	13	2	3	8	-6	-7.3	9
22	West Brom	14	3	0	11	-11	-3.0	9
23	Birmingham	13	2	2	9	-15	-4.4	8
24	Sheffield Weds	12	1	4	7	-11	-12.4	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.