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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Birmingham

S U T T T

2–0

Full-time

Wrexham

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Birmingham Wrexham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,5

3,7

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 41/41 matches

Win Ø 38%

34%

41%

Points per game

1,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

46%

51%

Both score Ø 61%

54%

68%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,57 xG 0,08

45% Possession 55%

15 Shots 4

8 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 3

5 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Birmingham 17. · Wrexham 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	42	25	10	7	+42	+31.9	85
2	Ipswich	40	21	12	7	+31	+28.9	75
3	Millwall	40	20	10	10	+9	+4.8	70
4	Southampton	39	19	11	9	+24	+17.9	68
5	Middlesbrough	39	18	11	10	+13	+23.8	65
6	Hull	39	19	8	12	+7	-21.5	65
7	Wrexham	41	17	13	11	+5	-5.7	64
8	Derby	42	18	9	15	+8	+2.0	63
9	Norwich	42	17	7	18	+5	-4.0	58
10	Bristol City	42	16	10	16	+1	-6.1	58
11	QPR	42	16	10	16	-5	-0.0	58
12	Watford	42	14	15	13	+1	+3.5	57
13	Preston	42	14	15	13	-3	-15.8	57
14	Swansea	42	16	9	17	-4	-6.4	57
15	Stoke	42	15	10	17	+3	-10.2	55
16	Sheffield United	42	16	6	20	+0	+14.5	54
17	Birmingham	41	14	11	16	-3	+12.2	53
18	Charlton	42	12	13	17	-12	-15.0	49
19	Blackburn	42	12	12	18	-12	+3.6	48
20	Leicester	42	11	14	17	-10	-12.2	47
21	West Brom	42	11	13	18	-14	+9.1	46
22	Portsmouth	41	11	12	18	-16	-0.9	45
23	Oxford	42	10	14	18	-13	-6.5	44
24	Sheffield Weds	42	1	11	30	-57	-47.8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	15	4	2	+26	+22.1	49
2	Ipswich	21	13	7	1	+23	+24.9	46
3	Southampton	19	11	5	3	+16	+12.1	38
4	Watford	21	10	7	4	+9	+5.5	37
5	Swansea	21	10	6	5	+6	-1.5	36
6	Millwall	20	11	3	6	+6	+6.6	36
7	Birmingham	20	9	8	3	+13	+18.4	35
8	Hull	19	10	4	5	+5	-5.0	34
9	Stoke	21	9	6	6	+10	+3.5	33
10	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+7	+12.7	33
11	QPR	21	10	3	8	+5	+7.9	33
12	Derby	21	9	6	6	+4	+4.1	33
13	Wrexham	21	9	6	6	+2	+6.4	33
14	Sheffield United	21	9	4	8	+8	+15.0	31
15	Preston	21	8	7	6	+2	-3.0	31
16	West Brom	21	7	9	5	+0	+12.2	30
17	Bristol City	21	8	4	9	+2	-3.7	28
18	Charlton	21	8	4	9	-3	-0.8	28
19	Norwich	21	8	2	11	-2	-0.2	26
20	Leicester	21	7	5	9	-3	-0.7	26
21	Oxford	21	6	8	7	-5	+2.8	26
22	Portsmouth	20	6	5	9	-1	+6.6	23
23	Blackburn	21	4	8	9	-7	+5.6	20
24	Sheffield Weds	21	0	6	15	-31	-21.5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Coventry	21	10	6	5	+16	+9.8	36
2	Millwall	20	9	7	4	+3	-1.8	34
3	Norwich	21	9	5	7	+7	-3.8	32
4	Middlesbrough	19	9	5	5	+6	+11.1	32
5	Wrexham	20	8	7	5	+3	-12.0	31
6	Hull	20	9	4	7	+2	-16.4	31
7	Southampton	20	8	6	6	+8	+5.8	30
8	Derby	21	9	3	9	+4	-2.1	30
9	Bristol City	21	8	6	7	-1	-2.4	30
10	Ipswich	19	8	5	6	+8	+4.0	29
11	Blackburn	21	8	4	9	-5	-2.1	28
12	Preston	21	6	8	7	-5	-12.7	26
13	QPR	21	6	7	8	-10	-8.0	25
14	Sheffield United	21	7	2	12	-8	-0.4	23
15	Stoke	21	6	4	11	-7	-13.8	22
16	Portsmouth	21	5	7	9	-15	-7.5	22
17	Leicester	21	4	9	8	-7	-11.6	21
18	Charlton	21	4	9	8	-9	-14.3	21
19	Swansea	21	6	3	12	-10	-4.9	21
20	Watford	21	4	8	9	-8	-2.0	20
21	Oxford	21	4	6	11	-8	-9.3	18
22	Birmingham	21	5	3	13	-16	-6.2	18
23	West Brom	21	4	4	13	-14	-3.1	16
24	Sheffield Weds	21	1	5	15	-26	-26.3	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.