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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Swansea

T U S T U

3–4

Full-time

Birmingham

T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Swansea Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

This season — Championship · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 33%

36%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

57%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

57%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

71% Possession 29%

14 Shots 14

6 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 3

5 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Swansea 12. · Birmingham 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	29	19	8	2	+32	65
2	Sheffield United	29	17	7	5	+24	58
3	Middlesbrough	28	13	6	9	+10	45
4	West Brom	29	12	8	9	+9	44
5	Luton	27	12	8	7	+7	44
6	Watford	29	12	8	9	+3	44
7	Blackburn	28	14	1	13	-4	43
8	Norwich	29	12	6	11	+6	42
9	Millwall	27	12	6	9	+6	42
10	Sunderland	27	11	7	9	+9	40
11	Preston	28	11	7	10	-5	40
12	Swansea	28	10	9	9	+2	39
13	QPR	29	10	8	11	-6	38
14	Hull	29	10	7	12	-8	37
15	Reading	28	11	4	13	-11	37
16	Coventry	28	9	8	11	-2	35
17	Bristol City	28	8	9	11	-1	33
18	Stoke	28	9	6	13	-4	33
19	Birmingham	28	8	8	12	-5	32
20	Rotherham	29	7	11	11	-7	32
21	Cardiff	29	7	8	14	-11	29
22	Huddersfield	27	7	5	15	-10	26
23	Blackpool	27	6	8	13	-12	26
24	Wigan	28	6	7	15	-22	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	15	11	4	0	+20	37
2	Sheffield United	14	9	3	2	+17	30
3	Millwall	13	8	3	2	+12	27
4	Blackburn	13	9	0	4	+7	27
5	Middlesbrough	14	7	5	2	+8	26
6	Reading	13	8	2	3	+6	26
7	West Brom	15	7	4	4	+7	25
8	Watford	14	7	3	4	+7	24
9	Coventry	14	6	4	4	+4	22
10	Rotherham	14	5	5	4	+7	20
11	Swansea	13	6	2	5	+4	20
12	Sunderland	14	5	4	5	+3	19
13	Bristol City	15	5	4	6	+2	19
14	Norwich	15	5	4	6	+0	19
15	QPR	14	5	4	5	-1	19
16	Luton	13	4	6	3	+3	18
17	Hull	15	5	3	7	-6	18
18	Birmingham	15	4	5	6	+0	17
19	Huddersfield	14	5	2	7	-1	17
20	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-2	17
21	Stoke	14	4	3	7	-1	15
22	Preston	14	3	4	7	-10	13
23	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	-5	12
24	Wigan	15	2	3	10	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	14	8	4	2	+12	28
2	Sheffield United	15	8	4	3	+7	28
3	Preston	14	8	3	3	+5	27
4	Luton	14	8	2	4	+4	26
5	Norwich	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Sunderland	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Watford	15	5	5	5	-4	20
8	Middlesbrough	14	6	1	7	+2	19
9	West Brom	14	5	4	5	+2	19
10	Swansea	15	4	7	4	-2	19
11	Hull	14	5	4	5	-2	19
12	QPR	15	5	4	6	-5	19
13	Stoke	14	5	3	6	-3	18
14	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-3	16
15	Blackburn	15	5	1	9	-11	16
16	Birmingham	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Millwall	14	4	3	7	-6	15
18	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-3	14
19	Blackpool	14	3	5	6	-7	14
20	Coventry	14	3	4	7	-6	13
21	Cardiff	14	3	3	8	-9	12
22	Rotherham	15	2	6	7	-14	12
23	Reading	15	3	2	10	-17	11
24	Huddersfield	13	2	3	8	-9	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.