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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Middlesbrough

S S T S T

2–0

Full-time

Watford

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Middlesbrough Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,8

This season — Championship · 27/28 matches

Win Ø 44%

44%

43%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

63%

39%

Both score Ø 53%

67%

39%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,6

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Middlesbrough 6. · Watford 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	28	18	8	2	+29	62
2	Sheffield United	28	17	6	5	+24	57
3	Watford	28	12	8	8	+5	44
4	Blackburn	28	14	1	13	-4	43
5	Norwich	28	12	6	10	+9	42
6	Middlesbrough	27	12	6	9	+8	42
7	Millwall	27	12	6	9	+6	42
8	West Brom	28	11	8	9	+8	41
9	Luton	26	11	8	7	+6	41
10	Sunderland	27	11	7	9	+9	40
11	Preston	28	11	7	10	-5	40
12	Swansea	28	10	9	9	+2	39
13	QPR	28	10	8	10	-3	38
14	Reading	28	11	4	13	-11	37
15	Hull	28	9	7	12	-11	34
16	Bristol City	28	8	9	11	-1	33
17	Stoke	28	9	6	13	-4	33
18	Coventry	26	8	8	10	-3	32
19	Birmingham	28	8	8	12	-5	32
20	Rotherham	28	7	10	11	-7	31
21	Cardiff	28	7	8	13	-10	29
22	Huddersfield	26	7	5	14	-8	26
23	Blackpool	27	6	8	13	-12	26
24	Wigan	28	6	7	15	-22	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	15	11	4	0	+20	37
2	Sheffield United	14	9	3	2	+17	30
3	Millwall	13	8	3	2	+12	27
4	Blackburn	13	9	0	4	+7	27
5	Reading	13	8	2	3	+6	26
6	Watford	14	7	3	4	+7	24
7	Middlesbrough	13	6	5	2	+6	23
8	West Brom	14	6	4	4	+6	22
9	Swansea	13	6	2	5	+4	20
10	Rotherham	13	5	4	4	+7	19
11	Norwich	14	5	4	5	+3	19
12	Sunderland	14	5	4	5	+3	19
13	Bristol City	15	5	4	6	+2	19
14	Coventry	13	5	4	4	+2	19
15	QPR	14	5	4	5	-1	19
16	Birmingham	15	4	5	6	+0	17
17	Huddersfield	14	5	2	7	-1	17
18	Cardiff	15	4	5	6	-2	17
19	Luton	12	3	6	3	+2	15
20	Stoke	14	4	3	7	-1	15
21	Hull	14	4	3	7	-9	15
22	Preston	14	3	4	7	-10	13
23	Blackpool	13	3	3	7	-5	12
24	Wigan	15	2	3	10	-19	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	14	8	3	3	+7	27
2	Preston	14	8	3	3	+5	27
3	Luton	14	8	2	4	+4	26
4	Burnley	13	7	4	2	+9	25
5	Norwich	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Sunderland	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Watford	14	5	5	4	-2	20
8	Middlesbrough	14	6	1	7	+2	19
9	West Brom	14	5	4	5	+2	19
10	Swansea	15	4	7	4	-2	19
11	Hull	14	5	4	5	-2	19
12	QPR	14	5	4	5	-2	19
13	Stoke	14	5	3	6	-3	18
14	Wigan	13	4	4	5	-3	16
15	Blackburn	15	5	1	9	-11	16
16	Birmingham	13	4	3	6	-5	15
17	Millwall	14	4	3	7	-6	15
18	Bristol City	13	3	5	5	-3	14
19	Blackpool	14	3	5	6	-7	14
20	Coventry	13	3	4	6	-5	13
21	Cardiff	13	3	3	7	-8	12
22	Rotherham	15	2	6	7	-14	12
23	Reading	15	3	2	10	-17	11
24	Huddersfield	12	2	3	7	-7	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.