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Premier League

Referee: P Tierney

Newcastle

U U T T U

0–3

Full-time

Chelsea

S T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,5

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

100%

17%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

2,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+2,5

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

78%

Points per game

0,4

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 56%

89%

22%

Average goals

3,4

2,9

Scored

1,2

2,6

Conceded

2,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+2,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

21% Possession 79%

6 Shots 19

1 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

0 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 19. · Chelsea 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	9	7	1	1	+20	22
2	Liverpool	9	6	3	0	+21	21
3	Man City	9	6	2	1	+16	20
4	West Ham	9	5	2	2	+6	17
5	Arsenal	10	5	2	3	-1	17
6	Brighton	9	4	3	2	+0	15
7	Tottenham	9	5	0	4	-4	15
8	Man United	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Everton	9	4	2	3	+1	14
10	Leicester	10	4	2	4	-2	14
11	Wolves	9	4	1	4	+0	13
12	Brentford	9	3	3	3	+2	12
13	Aston Villa	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	Watford	9	3	1	5	-5	10
15	Crystal Palace	9	1	6	2	-3	9
16	Southampton	9	1	5	3	-4	8
17	Leeds	9	1	4	4	-8	7
18	Burnley	9	0	4	5	-8	4
19	Newcastle	9	0	4	5	-9	4
20	Norwich	9	0	2	7	-21	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	5	4	0	1	+14	12
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+12	10
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Everton	5	3	0	2	+2	9
5	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
6	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
7	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Crystal Palace	5	1	4	0	+3	7
9	West Ham	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Man United	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Brighton	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Southampton	5	1	3	1	+0	6
14	Leeds	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Brentford	5	1	1	3	-1	4
16	Watford	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Wolves	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Newcastle	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Norwich	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	5	4	1	0	+16	13
2	Chelsea	4	3	1	0	+6	10
3	Man City	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	West Ham	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Wolves	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Brentford	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	8
8	Man United	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Leicester	5	2	1	2	-2	7
10	Arsenal	5	2	1	2	-4	7
11	Watford	5	2	0	3	+1	6
12	Tottenham	5	2	0	3	-4	6
13	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
14	Aston Villa	5	1	0	4	-6	3
15	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Leeds	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Burnley	5	0	2	3	-6	2
18	Crystal Palace	4	0	2	2	-6	2
19	Newcastle	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Norwich	5	0	1	4	-15	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.