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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Preston

U T U S T

2–0

Full-time

Luton

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Preston Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,0

3,5

Scored

0,8

2,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,2

This season — Championship · 15/14 matches

Win Ø 35%

27%

43%

Points per game

1,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

40%

64%

Both score Ø 48%

53%

43%

Average goals

2,2

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

20 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Preston 17. · Luton 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	15	10	5	0	+16	35
2	Fulham	15	10	2	3	+22	32
3	West Brom	16	9	4	3	+12	31
4	Coventry	15	8	3	4	+6	27
5	Middlesbrough	15	7	3	5	+6	24
6	Luton	14	6	5	3	+8	23
7	QPR	16	6	4	6	+2	22
8	Reading	15	7	1	7	-2	22
9	Sheffield United	15	6	3	6	+3	21
10	Stoke	14	6	3	5	+1	21
11	Millwall	14	5	6	3	+0	21
12	Blackpool	14	6	3	5	-1	21
13	Blackburn	14	5	5	4	+6	20
14	Huddersfield	12	6	2	4	+3	20
15	Swansea	15	5	5	5	+1	20
16	Bristol City	15	5	4	6	-4	19
17	Preston	15	4	6	5	-3	18
18	Derby	15	3	8	4	-2	17
19	Birmingham	15	4	4	7	-8	16
20	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-4	15
21	Peterborough	14	4	2	8	-11	14
22	Peterboro	15	4	2	9	-14	14
23	Cardiff	15	3	3	9	-14	12
24	Hull	15	2	3	10	-12	9
25	Barnsley	14	1	5	8	-11	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Fulham	8	6	1	1	+14	19
3	West Brom	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Bournemouth	7	5	2	0	+9	17
5	Middlesbrough	8	5	1	2	+7	16
6	Reading	8	5	1	2	+5	16
7	Stoke	7	5	1	1	+5	16
8	Swansea	8	4	3	1	+6	15
9	QPR	8	4	3	1	+5	15
10	Preston	8	4	3	1	+2	15
11	Blackburn	7	4	2	1	+8	14
12	Luton	7	4	2	1	+7	14
13	Sheffield United	8	4	1	3	+7	13
14	Huddersfield	6	4	1	1	+4	13
15	Blackpool	7	4	0	3	-1	12
16	Peterboro	7	3	2	2	+3	11
17	Peterborough	7	3	2	2	+3	11
18	Derby	7	2	5	0	+2	11
19	Millwall	7	3	2	2	+0	11
20	Birmingham	7	2	2	3	-5	8
21	Barnsley	7	1	2	4	-4	5
22	Hull	8	1	2	5	-6	5
23	Bristol City	7	0	4	3	-4	4
24	Cardiff	7	1	1	5	-7	4
25	Nott'm Forest	7	1	1	5	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	8	5	3	0	+7	18
2	Bristol City	8	5	0	3	+0	15
3	West Brom	9	4	2	3	+2	14
4	Fulham	7	4	1	2	+8	13
5	Nott'm Forest	7	3	2	2	+4	11
6	Millwall	7	2	4	1	+0	10
7	Luton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Blackpool	7	2	3	2	+0	9
9	Middlesbrough	7	2	2	3	-1	8
10	Birmingham	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Sheffield United	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Huddersfield	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	QPR	8	2	1	5	-3	7
15	Blackburn	7	1	3	3	-2	6
16	Derby	8	1	3	4	-4	6
17	Reading	7	2	0	5	-7	6
18	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-4	5
19	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-5	5
20	Coventry	7	1	2	4	-8	5
21	Hull	7	1	1	5	-6	4
22	Preston	7	0	3	4	-5	3
23	Barnsley	7	0	3	4	-7	3
24	Peterborough	7	1	0	6	-14	3
25	Peterboro	8	1	0	7	-17	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.