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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Chelsea

S T S S U

2–1

Full-time

Newcastle

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,0

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

This season — Premier League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 41%

62%

19%

Points per game

2,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

57%

48%

Both score Ø 48%

48%

Average goals

2,6

2,1

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

65% Possession 35%

10 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

5 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 4. · Newcastle 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	18	3	1	+40	57
2	Man City	21	16	2	3	+39	50
3	Tottenham	21	16	0	5	+25	48
4	Chelsea	21	13	5	3	+22	44
5	Arsenal	22	12	5	5	+14	41
6	Man United	21	11	5	5	+11	38
7	Watford	22	9	5	8	+0	32
8	Leicester	22	9	4	9	+1	31
9	West Ham	22	9	4	9	-2	31
10	Wolves	21	8	5	8	-2	29
11	Everton	21	7	6	8	+0	27
12	Bournemouth	21	8	3	10	-9	27
13	Brighton	22	7	5	10	-6	26
14	Crystal Palace	22	6	4	12	-8	22
15	Burnley	22	6	3	13	-20	21
16	Southampton	22	4	7	11	-16	19
17	Cardiff	22	5	4	13	-22	19
18	Newcastle	21	4	6	11	-14	18
19	Fulham	22	3	5	14	-29	14
20	Huddersfield	22	2	5	15	-24	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	11	10	0	1	+27	30
2	Liverpool	10	9	1	0	+24	28
3	Arsenal	11	8	2	1	+14	26
4	Chelsea	11	6	4	1	+11	22
5	Man United	10	6	3	1	+8	21
6	Tottenham	9	6	0	3	+9	18
7	Brighton	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Bournemouth	11	5	3	3	+2	18
9	Everton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
10	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-1	17
11	Watford	11	5	1	5	-2	16
12	Leicester	11	4	2	5	+1	14
13	Wolves	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	-10	14
15	Burnley	11	4	1	6	-7	13
16	Fulham	10	3	3	4	-7	12
17	Crystal Palace	11	2	3	6	-5	9
18	Southampton	10	1	5	4	-6	8
19	Newcastle	11	2	1	8	-10	7
20	Huddersfield	11	1	2	8	-11	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	12	10	0	2	+16	30
2	Liverpool	12	9	2	1	+16	29
3	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+11	22
4	Man City	10	6	2	2	+12	20
5	Man United	11	5	2	4	+3	17
6	Leicester	11	5	2	4	+0	17
7	Watford	11	4	4	3	+2	16
8	Wolves	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Arsenal	11	4	3	4	+0	15
10	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Crystal Palace	11	4	1	6	-3	13
12	Newcastle	10	2	5	3	-4	11
13	Southampton	12	3	2	7	-10	11
14	Everton	10	2	3	5	-2	9
15	Bournemouth	10	3	0	7	-11	9
16	Brighton	11	2	2	7	-9	8
17	Burnley	11	2	2	7	-13	8
18	Huddersfield	11	1	3	7	-13	6
19	Cardiff	10	1	2	7	-12	5
20	Fulham	12	0	2	10	-22	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.