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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Brentford

U T S U S

0–1

Full-time

Chelsea

U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Chelsea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 57%

43%

71%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

29%

57%

Both score Ø 36%

43%

29%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

0,9

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

44% Possession 56%

17 Shots 5

7 Shots on target 1

7 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 5

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 7. · Chelsea 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	5	3	0	+16	18
2	Man City	8	5	2	1	+13	17
3	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+12	16
4	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
5	Man United	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Everton	7	4	2	1	+5	14
7	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+4	12
8	Wolves	8	4	0	4	+0	12
9	Tottenham	7	4	0	3	-4	12
10	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+4	11
11	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
12	Aston Villa	8	3	1	4	+0	10
13	Arsenal	7	3	1	3	-5	10
14	Crystal Palace	7	1	4	2	-3	7
15	Southampton	8	1	4	3	-4	7
16	Watford	8	2	1	5	-8	7
17	Leeds	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Newcastle	7	0	3	4	-8	3
19	Burnley	8	0	3	5	-8	3
20	Norwich	8	0	2	6	-14	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	3	1	0	+12	10
2	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+7	9
3	Everton	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Tottenham	4	3	0	1	+0	9
5	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Man United	4	2	1	1	+6	7
7	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+4	7
8	Leicester	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+3	6
11	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Southampton	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	West Ham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Brentford	3	1	1	1	+1	4
15	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Watford	4	1	1	2	-6	4
17	Wolves	4	1	0	3	-3	3
18	Newcastle	3	0	2	1	-2	2
19	Burnley	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Norwich	4	0	1	3	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	4	3	1	0	+11	10
2	Wolves	4	3	0	1	+3	9
3	Brentford	4	2	2	0	+3	8
4	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	8
5	Chelsea	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	West Ham	3	2	1	0	+3	7
7	Man City	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Man United	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Everton	4	1	2	1	-1	5
10	Leicester	4	1	1	2	-3	4
11	Arsenal	4	1	1	2	-6	4
12	Watford	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Aston Villa	4	1	0	3	-4	3
14	Tottenham	3	1	0	2	-4	3
15	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-4	2
16	Leeds	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	Burnley	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Newcastle	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Crystal Palace	3	0	1	2	-6	1
20	Norwich	4	0	1	3	-8	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.