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Championship

Referee: J Simpson

Leeds

S U U S U

3–0

Full-time

Watford

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,4

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 36%

43%

29%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,6

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,34 xG 0,18

60% Possession 40%

17 Shots 4

10 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 9. · Watford 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Preston	7	6	1	0	+7	-1.1	19
2	Leicester	7	6	0	1	+8	+5.1	18
3	Ipswich	7	6	0	1	+6	+3.3	18
4	Sunderland	7	4	1	2	+8	+3.9	13
5	Norwich	7	4	1	2	+5	+3.1	13
6	Hull	7	3	3	1	+3	-2.8	12
7	Bristol City	7	3	3	1	+3	+4.2	12
8	Birmingham	8	3	3	2	+1	+4.5	12
9	Leeds	7	2	4	1	+3	+2.5	10
10	Cardiff	7	3	1	3	+1	+1.5	10
11	Millwall	7	3	1	3	-1	-4.3	10
12	Blackburn	7	3	1	3	-3	+1.9	10
13	Southampton	7	3	1	3	-6	-0.4	10
14	Watford	7	2	3	2	+4	+2.4	9
15	West Brom	7	2	3	2	+1	-4.2	9
16	Huddersfield	7	2	2	3	-4	-3.2	8
17	QPR	8	2	2	4	-5	-5.4	8
18	Coventry	7	1	4	2	+1	+0.9	7
19	Plymouth	7	2	1	4	-1	-3.2	7
20	Stoke	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.0	7
21	Rotherham	7	1	1	5	-9	-8.3	4
22	Swansea	7	0	3	4	-5	-1.3	3
23	Sheffield Weds	7	0	2	5	-6	-4.2	2
24	Middlesbrough	7	0	2	5	-9	+2.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Preston	4	4	0	0	+4	-1.1	12
2	Cardiff	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.5	9
3	Norwich	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.4	9
4	Watford	5	2	2	1	+5	+3.5	8
5	Birmingham	4	2	2	0	+2	+3.5	8
6	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.4	6
7	Plymouth	3	2	0	1	+4	-0.9	6
8	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.6	6
9	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
10	Hull	4	1	3	0	+2	-0.2	6
11	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
12	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
13	Millwall	4	2	0	2	+0	-2.2	6
14	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.6	6
15	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
16	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+1	+0.8	5
17	Rotherham	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.4	4
18	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.9	4
19	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.1	4
20	Leeds	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.9	3
21	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
22	Sheffield Weds	4	0	1	3	-3	-1.3	1
23	QPR	3	0	1	2	-3	-1.7	1
24	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.9	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	4	4	0	0	+7	+4.7	12
2	Ipswich	4	4	0	0	+4	+0.4	12
3	Leeds	4	2	1	1	+3	+0.6	7
4	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.5	7
5	Preston	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.0	7
6	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
7	QPR	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.7	7
8	Hull	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
9	Southampton	3	2	0	1	-3	+0.5	6
10	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.7	4
11	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
12	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.1	4
13	Millwall	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.1	4
14	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	-2	+1.3	4
15	West Brom	4	0	3	1	-1	-2.6	3
16	Coventry	4	0	2	2	-2	-0.2	2
17	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
18	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.9	1
19	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.9	1
20	Swansea	4	0	1	3	-4	-0.9	1
21	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-4	+1.1	1
22	Plymouth	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.3	1
23	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-6	+1.2	1
24	Rotherham	4	0	0	4	-9	-4.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.