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Championship

Referee: K Stroud

Watford

U U T T U

2–0

Full-time

Birmingham

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

40%

20%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

2,4

2,0

Scored

1,4

Conceded

1,0

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,41 xG 0,85

68% Possession 32%

12 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Watford 18. · Birmingham 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	6	5	0	1	+6	+3.9	15
2	Preston	5	4	1	0	+5	-0.6	13
3	Ipswich	5	4	0	1	+4	+2.2	12
4	Birmingham	5	3	2	0	+4	+3.3	11
5	Hull	6	3	2	1	+3	-2.3	11
6	Norwich	5	3	1	1	+6	+4.2	10
7	Southampton	6	3	1	2	-5	-0.6	10
8	Bristol City	5	2	2	1	+0	+2.7	8
9	Sunderland	5	2	1	2	+4	+2.6	7
10	Plymouth	5	2	1	2	+3	-2.1	7
11	Coventry	6	1	4	1	+2	+0.6	7
12	West Brom	5	2	1	2	+1	-3.5	7
13	Millwall	5	2	1	2	-1	-3.2	7
14	Blackburn	5	2	1	2	-2	+1.4	7
15	Leeds	5	1	3	1	+0	-0.1	6
16	Stoke	5	2	0	3	-1	+1.3	6
17	QPR	5	2	0	3	-3	-3.5	6
18	Watford	5	1	2	2	+2	+2.6	5
19	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-2	+1.0	4
20	Rotherham	5	1	1	3	-4	-5.6	4
21	Huddersfield	5	1	1	3	-6	-3.0	4
22	Swansea	5	0	2	3	-3	+0.1	2
23	Sheffield Weds	5	0	1	4	-5	-3.7	1
24	Middlesbrough	5	0	1	4	-8	+2.4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Birmingham	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.3	7
2	Sunderland	3	2	0	1	+5	+2.4	6
3	Plymouth	3	2	0	1	+4	-0.9	6
4	Norwich	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.5	6
5	West Brom	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.6	6
6	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.9	6
7	Stoke	3	2	0	1	+2	+1.9	6
8	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
9	Leicester	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
10	Coventry	3	1	2	0	+3	+1.1	5
11	Hull	3	1	2	0	+2	+0.3	5
12	Watford	3	1	1	1	+3	+3.7	4
13	Rotherham	3	1	1	1	+0	-3.4	4
14	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.1	4
15	Leeds	3	0	3	0	+0	+1.9	3
16	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
17	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
18	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
19	Swansea	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.4	2
20	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.8	1
21	Middlesbrough	3	0	1	2	-3	+0.9	1
22	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
23	Sheffield Weds	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0
24	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-5	-1.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leicester	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.5	9
2	Preston	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.0	7
3	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+2	+3.5	7
4	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.6	6
5	Hull	3	2	0	1	+1	-2.6	6
6	QPR	4	2	0	2	-2	-3.5	6
7	Southampton	3	2	0	1	-3	+0.5	6
8	Norwich	3	1	1	1	+3	+0.7	4
9	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.0	4
10	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.1	4
11	Millwall	3	1	1	1	-1	-2.1	4
12	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	-2	+1.3	4
13	Leeds	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.0	3
14	Coventry	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
15	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.1	1
16	West Brom	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.8	1
17	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.2	1
18	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
19	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-2	-0.9	1
20	Sheffield Weds	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.9	1
21	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.5	0
22	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.6	0
23	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.2	0
24	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-5	+1.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.