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Serie B

Referee: Federico Dionisi

Mantova

U T T S S

4–1

Full-time

Spezia

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mantova Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,2

This season — Serie B · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 17%

25%

Points per game

0,9

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

42%

33%

Both score Ø 54%

50%

58%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,18 xG 2,62

67% Possession 33%

23 Shots 9

11 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 2

4 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Mantova 17. · Spezia 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Monza	12	8	2	2	+10	+3.5	26
2	Modena	12	7	4	1	+13	+1.2	25
3	Frosinone	13	7	4	2	+12	+4.7	25
4	Cesena	12	7	2	3	+6	+1.6	23
5	Venezia	13	6	4	3	+10	+2.2	22
6	Palermo	13	5	5	3	+6	-2.9	20
7	Reggiana	13	4	5	4	+0	+1.1	17
8	Juve Stabia	11	4	5	2	+0	+0.6	17
9	Empoli	13	4	5	4	-1	+1.0	17
10	Carrarese	13	3	7	3	+2	-0.4	16
11	Catanzaro	13	3	7	3	+1	-1.3	16
12	Avellino	13	4	4	5	-9	-0.9	16
13	Virtus Entella	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.5	15
14	Padova	13	3	5	5	-4	-2.6	14
15	Bari	12	3	4	5	-6	-3.5	13
16	Sudtirol	12	2	6	4	-3	-1.8	12
17	Mantova	12	3	2	7	-9	+1.3	11
18	Pescara	13	1	6	6	-10	-2.5	9
19	Spezia	12	1	5	6	-5	+0.7	8
20	Sampdoria	12	1	4	7	-8	-0.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Modena	6	5	1	0	+10	–	16
2	Venezia	6	5	0	1	+10	+0.9	15
3	Monza	6	5	0	1	+5	–	15
4	Virtus Entella	7	3	4	0	+4	+1.1	13
5	Palermo	7	3	3	1	+5	-1.2	12
6	Reggiana	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.4	12
7	Frosinone	6	3	2	1	+7	+1.8	11
8	Juve Stabia	5	3	2	0	+4	+0.6	11
9	Empoli	7	2	5	0	+3	+0.6	11
10	Bari	6	3	2	1	+2	-2.8	11
11	Catanzaro	7	2	4	1	+1	–	10
12	Avellino	6	3	1	2	-3	-0.4	10
13	Carrarese	7	2	3	2	+1	-1.5	9
14	Cesena	5	2	2	1	+3	+1.6	8
15	Pescara	7	1	4	2	+0	-2.5	7
16	Sudtirol	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.8	7
17	Mantova	6	2	1	3	-6	+1.3	7
18	Padova	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.3	6
19	Sampdoria	6	1	2	3	-1	–	5
20	Spezia	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.7	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Cesena	7	5	0	2	+3	–	15
2	Frosinone	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
3	Monza	6	3	2	1	+5	+3.5	11
4	Modena	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.2	9
5	Palermo	6	2	2	2	+1	-1.7	8
6	Padova	7	2	2	3	-2	-1.3	8
7	Carrarese	6	1	4	1	+1	+1.0	7
8	Venezia	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
9	Catanzaro	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.3	6
10	Juve Stabia	6	1	3	2	-4	–	6
11	Empoli	6	2	0	4	-4	+0.4	6
12	Avellino	7	1	3	3	-6	-0.6	6
13	Spezia	5	1	2	2	+1	–	5
14	Sudtirol	6	0	5	1	-3	–	5
15	Reggiana	7	1	2	4	-5	+1.5	5
16	Mantova	6	1	1	4	-3	–	4
17	Sampdoria	6	0	2	4	-7	-0.2	2
18	Bari	6	0	2	4	-8	-0.7	2
19	Virtus Entella	6	0	2	4	-9	-2.7	2
20	Pescara	6	0	2	4	-10	–	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.