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Serie B
Referee: D Ghersini
Mantova
T U T S S
2–2
Full-time
Spezia
U S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mantova Spezia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
2,5
1,8
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,2
This season — Serie B · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 36%
25%
47%
Points per game
1,1
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
50%
34%
Both score Ø 50%
59%
41%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%
31 Shots 8
7 Shots on target 3
8 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 1
2 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 21
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Mantova 13. · Spezia 3.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sassuolo 33 23 6 4 +39 75
2 Pisa 33 19 7 7 +23 64
3 Spezia 32 15 13 4 +24 58
4 Cremonese 33 14 11 8 +16 53
5 Juve Stabia 33 13 11 9 +2 50
6 Catanzaro 33 10 18 5 +8 48
7 Palermo 33 12 9 12 +7 45
8 Bari 33 9 17 7 +4 44
9 Cesena 33 11 11 11 +1 44
10 Modena 33 9 14 10 +0 41
11 Carrarese 33 9 11 13 -9 38
12 Frosinone 33 8 14 11 -11 38
13 Mantova 32 8 12 12 -9 36
14 Cittadella 33 9 9 15 -21 36
15 Brescia 33 7 14 12 -7 35
16 Sudtirol 33 9 8 16 -11 35
17 Sampdoria 33 7 14 12 -11 35
18 Salernitana 33 8 9 16 -13 33
19 Reggiana 33 7 11 15 -13 32
20 Cosenza 33 6 13 14 -19 31

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Recent head-to-head meetings

26. Dec -24 Spezia – Mantova 1–1

Match report

Mantova Spezia
18′
G. Aurelio 0–1
S. Esposito
T. Maggioni 🔁
↦ N. Radaelli
40′
Half-time 0–2
52′
S. Esposito 0–2
F. Esposito
A. Debenedetti 🔁
↦ L. Mancuso
60′
F. Ruocco 🔁
↦ A. Fiori
60′
62′
ℹ️ Nicolò Bertola
VAR: Card upgrade
63′
🟥 Nicolò Bertola
64′
🔁 M. Benvenuto
↦ G. Lapadula
66′
🟨 Salvatore Elia
M. Aramu 🔁
↦ D. Mensah
75′
D. Bragantini 🔁
↦ D. Wieser
75′
75′
🔁 G. Di Serio
↦ F. Esposito
75′
🔁 F. Cassata
↦ F. Bandinelli
1–2 T. Maggioni
F. Ruocco
80′
83′
🟨 Francesco Cassata
88′
🔁 S. Giorgeschi
↦ S. Elia
Stefano Cella 🟨
91′
2–2 T. Maggioni
M. Aramu
94′
Tommaso Maggioni 🟨
95′
Stefano Cella ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
100′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Mantova

4-2-3-1
1 M. Festa G
17 N. Radaelli D
13 F. Brignani D
29 S. Cella D
6 C. Bani D
21 S. Trimboli M
10 D. Wieser M
14 F. Galuppini M
19 L. Mancuso M
11 A. Fiori M
7 D. Mensah F
Bench (12)
27 T. Maggioni
9 A. Debenedetti
18 F. Ruocco
70 M. Aramu
30 D. Bragantini
20 G. Fedel
5 A. Redolfi
36 F. Paoletti
12 L. Sonzogni
87 S. De Maio
4 M. Solini
24 F. Artioli

Coach: D. Possanzini

Spezia

3-5-2
66 S. Gori G
37 A. Matějů D
55 P. Hristov D
77 N. Bertola D
7 S. Elia M
8 Á. Nagy M
5 S. Esposito M
25 F. Bandinelli M
31 G. Aurelio M
9 F. Esposito F
10 G. Lapadula F
Bench (12)
44 M. Benvenuto
20 G. Di Serio
29 F. Cassata
65 S. Giorgeschi
23 L. Chichizola
82 H. Djankpata
4 Salvador Ferrer
36 P. Candelari
12 D. Mascardi
11 D. Falcinelli
17 A. Čolak
80 R. Kouda

Coach: L. D'Angelo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,94
U ✓
3,63
B
1,85
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,83
U2,5
1,94
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

D Ghersini · 64 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.