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Serie A

Referee: Simone Sozza

Inter

T S S S S

0–1

Full-time

Milan

S U U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 64%

73%

55%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

73%

55%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

3,5

2,4

Scored

2,4

1,5

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,92 xG 1,01

64% Possession 36%

20 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 1

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 3. · Milan 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	12	9	0	3	+9	+2.9	27
2	Napoli	12	8	1	3	+8	+4.0	25
3	Inter	11	8	0	3	+14	+12.1	24
4	Bologna	12	7	3	2	+13	+4.1	24
5	Milan	11	6	4	1	+8	+5.1	22
6	Juventus	12	5	5	2	+4	+7.0	20
7	Lazio	12	5	3	4	+6	-3.3	18
8	Como	11	4	6	1	+6	+2.8	18
9	Sassuolo	11	5	1	5	+2	-3.5	16
10	Udinese	12	4	3	5	-8	-3.0	15
11	Cremonese	12	3	5	4	-3	-7.3	14
12	Torino	11	3	5	3	-6	-4.3	14
13	Atalanta	12	2	7	3	+0	+3.8	13
14	Cagliari	12	2	5	5	-5	-7.3	11
15	Parma	12	2	5	5	-6	-2.9	11
16	Lecce	12	2	4	6	-8	-6.0	10
17	Pisa	11	1	6	4	-6	-4.1	9
18	Genoa	12	1	5	6	-8	+2.6	8
19	Fiorentina	12	0	6	6	-9	-2.3	6
20	Verona	12	0	6	6	-11	-0.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	6	5	1	0	+7	+0.3	16
2	Inter	6	5	0	1	+13	+8.5	15
3	Lazio	6	4	1	1	+8	+2.4	13
4	Bologna	5	4	1	0	+8	+5.6	13
5	Milan	6	4	1	1	+3	+2.7	13
6	Como	6	3	3	0	+6	+2.4	12
7	Juventus	6	3	3	0	+5	+5.0	12
8	Roma	6	4	0	2	+4	+2.0	12
9	Torino	5	2	2	1	-1	-2.4	8
10	Udinese	6	2	2	2	-4	+0.8	8
11	Atalanta	6	1	4	1	+0	+5.0	7
12	Sassuolo	5	2	0	3	-1	-1.8	6
13	Pisa	6	1	3	2	-1	-1.3	6
14	Cremonese	6	1	3	2	-2	-0.7	6
15	Parma	6	1	3	2	-2	-1.6	6
16	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-3	-4.6	5
17	Verona	6	0	3	3	-3	+1.4	3
18	Lecce	6	0	3	3	-4	-1.9	3
19	Genoa	6	0	3	3	-6	+2.3	3
20	Fiorentina	6	0	2	4	-5	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	6	5	0	1	+5	+0.9	15
2	Bologna	7	3	2	2	+5	-1.6	11
3	Sassuolo	6	3	1	2	+3	-1.7	10
4	Milan	5	2	3	0	+5	+2.4	9
5	Inter	5	3	0	2	+1	+3.6	9
6	Napoli	6	3	0	3	+1	+3.7	9
7	Cremonese	6	2	2	2	-1	-6.6	8
8	Juventus	6	2	2	2	-1	+2.0	8
9	Udinese	6	2	1	3	-4	-3.8	7
10	Lecce	6	2	1	3	-4	-4.1	7
11	Atalanta	6	1	3	2	+0	-1.2	6
12	Como	5	1	3	1	+0	+0.4	6
13	Cagliari	6	1	3	2	-2	-2.7	6
14	Torino	6	1	3	2	-5	-1.9	6
15	Genoa	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.3	5
16	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-2	-5.7	5
17	Parma	6	1	2	3	-4	-1.3	5
18	Fiorentina	6	0	4	2	-4	-2.2	4
19	Pisa	5	0	3	2	-5	-2.8	3
20	Verona	6	0	3	3	-8	-1.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.