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Ekstraklasa
Referee: P Lasyk
Lech Poznan
U S U T T
4–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lech Poznan Radomiak Radom
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 83%
83%
83%
Average goals
3,2
3,5
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 14/15 matches
Win Ø 38%
36%
40%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
71%
73%
Both score Ø 80%
79%
80%
Average goals
3,3
3,5
Scored
1,6
1,9
Conceded
1,6
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,98 xG 1,29
53% Possession 47%
13 Shots 23
5 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 11
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
8 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lech Poznan 8. · Radomiak Radom 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Gornik Zabrze 16 9 3 4 +12 -1.6 30
2 Jagiellonia 14 8 3 3 +9 -1.3 27
3 Wisla Plock 15 7 6 2 +9 +4.4 27
4 Rakow 15 7 2 6 +0 +1.6 23
5 Radomiak Radom 15 6 4 5 +4 +1.2 22
6 Cracovia 15 6 4 5 +3 +3.4 22
7 Zaglebie 14 5 6 3 +9 -1.2 21
8 Lech Poznan 14 5 6 3 +0 +8.2 21
9 Korona Kielce 15 5 5 5 +1 -1.7 20
10 Motor Lublin 15 4 7 4 -4 +0.2 19
11 Lechia Gdansk 16 5 4 7 -7 -1.5 19
12 Legia 15 4 6 5 +1 +0.8 18
13 Arka Gdynia 16 5 3 8 -15 -6.6 18
14 Widzew Lodz 15 5 2 8 -1 +2.9 17
15 Pogon Szczecin 15 5 2 8 -6 +6.4 17
16 GKS Katowice 15 5 2 8 -6 -7.6 17
17 Nieciecza 16 4 4 8 -8 -2.4 16
18 Piast Gliwice 14 3 5 6 -1 -5.3 14

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lech Poznan Radomiak Radom
13′
🔁 Joao Pedro
↦ J. Grzesik
23′
🟨 Vasco Lopes
Mikael Ishak ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
43′
1–0 M. Ishak
45′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 P. Rodriguez
M. Ishak
52′
3–0 M. Ishak
61′
L. Bengtsson 🔁
↦ A. Gholizadeh
68′
T. Ismaheel 🔁
↦ P. Rodriguez
68′
Y. Agnero 🔁
↦ M. Ishak
68′
68′
🔁 R. Baro
↦ R. Wolski
68′
🔁 E. Balde
↦ V. Lopes
68′
🔁 Depu
↦ Maurides
73′
E. Balde 3–1
Zie Ouattara
81′
🟨 Ibrahima Camará
R. Gumny 🔁
↦ J. Pereira
83′
83′
🔁 C. Donis
↦ Capita
G. Thordarson 🔁
↦ F. Jagiello
84′
4–1 Y. Agnero
L. Palma
89′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Lech Poznan

4-4-2
41 B. Mrozek G
2 J. Pereira D
27 W. Monka D
72 M. Skrzypczak D
15 M. Gurgul D
8 A. Gholizadeh M
43 A. Kozubal M
24 F. Jagiello M
77 L. Palma M
9 M. Ishak F
99 P. Rodriguez F
Bench (11)
33 M. Pruchniewski
4 J. Moutinho
20 R. Gumny
14 L. Bengtsson
21 B. Baranski
23 G. Thordarson
56 K. Lisman
88 T. Ismaheel
90 H. Janyszka
7 Y. Agnero
19 B. Fiabema

Coach: Niels Frederiksen

Radomiak Radom

4-3-3
1 F. Majchrowicz G
24 Zie Ouattara D
74 S. Kingue D
26 A. Dieguez D
13 J. Grzesik D
10 R. Alves M
2 I. Camara M
27 R. Wolski M
7 V. Lopes F
25 Maurides F
11 Capita F
Bench (12)
44 W. Koptas
75 M. Jerke
5 J. Blasco
16 M. Cichocki
20 Joao Pedro
6 R. Baro
9 Leandro
28 M. Kaput
77 C. Donis
17 A. Niziolek
21 E. Balde
29 Depu

Coach: Goncalo Feio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Lasyk · 88 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.