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La Liga

Referee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso

Elche

U T S T U

2–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elche Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,7

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 54%

25%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,1

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,44 xG 3,49

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 20

6 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 8

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elche 13. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	10	1	2	+21	+11.6	31
2	Real Madrid	12	10	1	1	+16	+14.5	31
3	Villarreal	13	9	2	2	+15	+7.9	29
4	Ath Madrid	13	8	4	1	+14	+10.9	28
5	Betis	13	5	6	2	+6	+5.6	21
6	Espanol	12	5	3	4	+0	+6.2	18
7	Getafe	13	5	2	6	-3	-4.1	17
8	Ath Bilbao	13	5	2	6	-5	+4.0	17
9	Sevilla	12	5	1	6	-1	-10.3	16
10	Sociedad	13	4	4	5	-1	+1.2	16
11	Celta	13	3	7	3	-2	-2.0	16
12	Vallecano	13	4	4	5	-2	+1.2	16
13	Elche	12	3	6	3	-1	-2.6	15
14	Alaves	13	4	3	6	-1	+1.7	15
15	Valencia	13	3	4	6	-9	-4.9	13
16	Mallorca	13	3	3	7	-7	-11.2	12
17	Osasuna	13	3	2	8	-6	-3.3	11
18	Girona	13	2	5	6	-13	-9.4	11
19	Levante	13	2	3	8	-8	-3.8	9
20	Oviedo	13	2	3	8	-13	-13.3	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	7	6	1	0	+14	+6.9	19
2	Ath Madrid	7	6	1	0	+12	+11.1	19
3	Barcelona	6	6	0	0	+17	+9.3	18
4	Real Madrid	6	6	0	0	+11	+9.9	18
5	Betis	7	4	1	2	+5	+4.1	13
6	Ath Bilbao	7	4	1	2	+2	+7.4	13
7	Espanol	7	4	1	2	+1	+2.9	13
8	Elche	6	3	3	0	+4	+2.4	12
9	Valencia	7	3	2	2	+3	+3.6	11
10	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+2	+2.5	11
11	Sociedad	6	3	1	2	+1	+3.1	10
12	Osasuna	6	3	1	2	+1	+0.7	10
13	Mallorca	6	2	3	1	-1	-3.8	9
14	Getafe	6	2	2	2	+1	-3.3	8
15	Girona	7	2	2	3	-6	-5.3	8
16	Sevilla	6	2	1	3	+0	-1.4	7
17	Vallecano	5	1	3	1	+0	+2.1	6
18	Celta	7	0	5	2	-4	-0.1	5
19	Oviedo	7	1	2	4	-8	-8.6	5
20	Levante	5	0	1	4	-8	-5.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	6	4	1	1	+5	+4.6	13
2	Barcelona	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
3	Celta	6	3	2	1	+2	-1.9	11
4	Villarreal	6	3	1	2	+1	+1.1	10
5	Vallecano	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.9	10
6	Ath Madrid	6	2	3	1	+2	-0.1	9
7	Sevilla	6	3	0	3	-1	-8.9	9
8	Getafe	7	3	0	4	-4	-0.7	9
9	Betis	6	1	5	0	+1	+1.4	8
10	Levante	8	2	2	4	+0	+1.2	8
11	Sociedad	7	1	3	3	-2	-2.0	6
12	Espanol	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.3	5
13	Alaves	6	1	1	4	-3	-0.8	4
14	Oviedo	6	1	1	4	-5	-4.7	4
15	Ath Bilbao	6	1	1	4	-7	-3.4	4
16	Elche	6	0	3	3	-5	-5.0	3
17	Mallorca	7	1	0	6	-6	-7.4	3
18	Girona	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.2	3
19	Valencia	6	0	2	4	-12	-8.5	2
20	Osasuna	7	0	1	6	-7	-3.9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.