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Serie B

Referee: Antonio Rapuano

Padova

T U T S S

2–2

Full-time

Avellino

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Padova Avellino

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,2

This season — Serie B · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

45% Possession 55%

11 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 1

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Padova 10. · Avellino 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Modena	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Frosinone	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Palermo	5	3	2	0	+5	11
4	Cesena	5	3	2	0	+4	11
5	Avellino	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Sudtirol	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Venezia	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Juve Stabia	5	1	4	0	+2	7
9	Monza	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Padova	5	2	1	2	-1	7
11	Carrarese	5	1	3	1	+1	6
12	Catanzaro	5	0	5	0	+0	5
13	Reggiana	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Virtus Entella	5	1	2	2	-2	5
15	Empoli	5	1	2	2	-4	5
16	Pescara	5	1	1	3	+0	4
17	Mantova	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Bari	5	0	2	3	-6	2
19	Spezia	5	0	2	3	-6	2
20	Sampdoria	5	0	1	4	-6	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Modena	3	2	1	0	+4	7
2	Palermo	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Avellino	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Sudtirol	3	2	0	1	+2	6
5	Venezia	3	2	0	1	+2	6
6	Monza	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Empoli	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Pescara	3	1	1	1	+2	4
9	Reggiana	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Frosinone	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Virtus Entella	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Catanzaro	3	0	3	0	+0	3
13	Padova	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Mantova	3	1	0	2	-5	3
15	Bari	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Cesena	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Juve Stabia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Carrarese	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Spezia	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Sampdoria	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cesena	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Frosinone	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Modena	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Juve Stabia	3	1	2	0	+2	5
5	Carrarese	3	1	2	0	+2	5
6	Palermo	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Avellino	3	1	1	1	-1	4
8	Padova	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	Sudtirol	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Catanzaro	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Venezia	2	0	2	0	+0	2
12	Monza	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Spezia	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Sampdoria	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Reggiana	3	0	1	2	-3	1
16	Virtus Entella	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Pescara	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Mantova	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Bari	3	0	0	3	-6	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.