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Serie B
Referee: M Monaldi
Carrarese
T T T U S
1–1
Full-time
Mantova
S T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Carrarese Mantova
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,5
2,2
Scored
1,0
0,8
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-0,5
This season — Serie B · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 32%
25%
38%
Points per game
0,9
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
38%
38%
Both score Ø 44%
38%
50%
Average goals
2,4
2,8
Scored
0,9
1,3
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%
16 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 2
6 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 3
2 Offside 0
17 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Carrarese 19. · Mantova 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Pisa 9 6 2 1 +6 20
2 Spezia 9 5 4 0 +7 19
3 Sassuolo 9 5 3 1 +9 18
4 Juve Stabia 8 4 2 2 +1 14
5 Brescia 9 4 1 4 +0 13
6 Palermo 9 3 3 3 +1 12
7 Sudtirol 9 4 0 5 -1 12
8 Cremonese 8 3 2 3 +2 11
9 Bari 9 2 5 2 +2 11
10 Cesena 8 3 2 3 +1 11
11 Salernitana 9 3 2 4 -2 11
12 Mantova 8 3 2 3 -2 11
13 Modena 9 2 4 3 +0 10
14 Cosenza 9 2 4 3 -2 10
15 Catanzaro 9 1 6 2 -1 9
16 Reggiana 8 2 3 3 -1 9
17 Cittadella 9 2 3 4 -6 9
18 Sampdoria 8 2 2 4 -1 8
19 Carrarese 8 2 1 5 -5 7
20 Frosinone 8 1 3 4 -8 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Carrarese Mantova
9′
🟨 Leonardo Mancuso
Mauro Coppolaro 🟨
17′
Half-time 0–0
46′
🟨 Salvatore Burrai
L. Capezzi 🔁
↦ S. Giovane
57′
G. Panico 🔁
↦ A. Capello
57′
58′
🟨 Fabrizio Brignani
62′
🔁 D. Bragantini
↦ F. Galuppini
62′
🔁 G. Fedel
↦ A. Fiori
63′
🔁 F. Ruocco
↦ T. Maggioni
67′
ℹ️ Davide Bragantini
VAR: Penalty confirmed
69′
L. Mancuso 0–1
1–1 N. Schiavi
M. Cicconi
71′
L. Cerri 🔁
↦ M. Finotto
75′
D. Bouah 🔁
↦ S. Zanon
76′
78′
🟨 Cristiano Bani
N. Belloni 🔁
↦ M. Cicconi
80′
82′
🔁 D. Wieser
↦ L. Mancuso
82′
🔁 M. Solini
↦ C. Bani
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Carrarese

3-4-2-1
1 M. Bleve G
72 S. Zanon D
4 J. Illanes D
3 M. Imperiale D
21 M. Coppolaro M
20 S. Giovane M
18 N. Schiavi M
11 M. Cicconi M
28 A. Capello F
9 L. Cherubini F
32 M. Finotto F
Bench (12)
82 L. Capezzi
10 G. Panico
90 L. Cerri
13 D. Bouah
77 N. Belloni
25 F. Falco
6 F. Oliana
8 R. Palmieri
24 N. Chiorra
39 M. Motolese
17 E. Zuelli
34 G. Guarino

Coach: A. Calabro

Mantova

4-2-3-1
1 M. Festa G
27 T. Maggioni D
13 F. Brignani D
5 A. Redolfi D
6 C. Bani D
21 S. Trimboli M
8 S. Burrai M
14 F. Galuppini M
19 L. Mancuso M
11 A. Fiori M
9 A. Debenedetti F
Bench (12)
30 D. Bragantini
20 G. Fedel
18 F. Ruocco
10 D. Wieser
4 M. Solini
29 S. Cella
12 L. Sonzogni
24 F. Artioli
87 S. De Maio
16 F. Botti
70 M. Aramu
28 M. Muroni

Coach: D. Possanzini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,19
U ✓
3,24
B
3,30
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,93
U2,5 ✓
1,84
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Monaldi · 31 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
27,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,13 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.