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Taça de Portugal
Referee: Marco Pereira
Alpendorada
T S
1–2
Full-time
Cinfães
S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Alpendorada Cinfães
Last 6 — all competitions · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 75%
50%
100%
Points per game
1,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
50%
100%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
2,0
4,0
Scored
1,5
3,0
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+2,0
This season — Taça de Portugal · 1/2 matches
Win Ø 100%
100%
100%
Points per game
3,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
3,0
4,0
Scored
3,0
3,0
Conceded
0,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+3,0
+2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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The table before the match Alpendorada 25. · Cinfães 2. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Amarante 3 3 0 0 +10 9
2 Cinfães 2 2 0 0 +4 6
3 Rebordosa 2 2 0 0 +4 6
4 Moncarapachense 2 2 0 0 +4 6
5 Anadia 3 2 0 1 +3 6
6 Moura 2 2 0 0 +3 6
7 Tirsense 2 2 0 0 +3 6
8 Oliveira Hospital 2 2 0 0 +3 6
9 Lusitânia Lourosa 2 2 0 0 +2 6
10 União Santarém 3 2 0 1 +2 6
11 CF Os Belenenses 3 2 0 1 +2 6
12 Lusitânia 2 2 0 0 +2 6
13 Maria da Fonte 2 2 0 0 +2 6
14 Sanjoanense 3 1 1 1 +3 4
15 Operário 2 1 1 0 +2 4
16 São João Ver 2 1 1 0 +1 4
17 Brito 2 1 1 0 +1 4
18 Vila Real 2 1 1 0 +1 4
19 Caldas 3 1 1 1 +0 4
20 Casa Pia 1 1 0 0 +5 3
21 FC Serpa 2 1 0 1 +4 3
22 SC Covilha 1 1 0 0 +4 3
23 Alcains 1 1 0 0 +3 3
24 Penafiel 1 1 0 0 +3 3
25 Alpendorada 1 1 0 0 +3 3
26 Varzim 1 1 0 0 +3 3
27 Louletano 2 1 0 1 +2 3
28 Farense 1 1 0 0 +2 3
29 Guimaraes 1 1 0 0 +2 3
30 Arronches e Benfica 2 1 0 1 +2 3
31 Estrela 1 1 0 0 +2 3
32 Rio Ave 1 1 0 0 +2 3
33 União de Leiria 1 1 0 0 +2 3
34 Benfica 1 1 0 0 +2 3
35 Gil Vicente 1 1 0 0 +2 3
36 Chaves 1 1 0 0 +2 3
37 Lagoa 1 1 0 0 +2 3
38 Portimonense 2 1 0 1 +1 3
39 Atlético CP 2 1 0 1 +1 3
40 Estrela Vendas Novas 2 1 0 1 +1 3
41 Paredes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
42 Machico 2 1 0 1 +1 3
43 Ferreira Zêzere 2 1 0 1 +1 3
44 Alverca 1 1 0 0 +1 3
45 Sp Lisbon 1 1 0 0 +1 3
46 Academica 2 1 0 1 +1 3
47 Sintrense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
48 Moreirense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
49 Sp Braga 1 1 0 0 +1 3
50 Os Marialvas 1 1 0 0 +1 3
51 Sandinenses 1 1 0 0 +1 3
52 Atlético Arcos 1 1 0 0 +1 3
53 Torreense 1 1 0 0 +1 3
54 Santa Clara 1 1 0 0 +1 3
55 Pêro Pinheiro 1 1 0 0 +1 3
56 Leixoes 1 1 0 0 +1 3
57 Vilaverdense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
58 Os Limianos 2 1 0 1 +0 3
59 Guarda 2 1 0 1 +0 3
60 Sertanense 2 1 0 1 +0 3
61 Pacos Ferreira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
62 Régua 2 1 0 1 +0 3
63 1º Dezembro 2 1 0 1 +0 3
64 Mortágua 2 1 0 1 +0 3
65 Aliança de Gandra 2 1 0 1 +0 3
66 Vieira 2 1 0 1 +0 3
67 Mafra 2 1 0 1 +0 3
68 Gondomar 2 1 0 1 +0 3
69 Vianense 2 1 0 1 -1 3
70 Pevidem 2 1 0 1 -1 3
71 CF Benfica 2 1 0 1 -2 3
72 Pombal 2 1 0 1 -2 3
73 Amora 2 1 0 1 -4 3
74 Lajense 3 1 0 2 -5 3
75 AD Marco 09 2 0 2 0 +0 2
76 Leça 1 0 1 0 +0 1
77 Beira-Mar 1 0 1 0 +0 1
78 Lusitano Évora 1911 1 0 1 0 +0 1
79 Academico Viseu 1 0 1 0 +0 1
80 Ovarense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
81 Marinhense 1 0 1 0 +0 1
82 Joane 1 0 1 0 +0 1
83 O Elvas 1 0 1 0 +0 1
84 Fátima 1 0 1 0 +0 1
85 União de Coimbra 2 0 1 1 -2 1
86 Estarreja 1 0 0 1 -1 0
87 Vizela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
88 Comércio Indústria 1 0 0 1 -1 0
89 Dumiense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
90 FC Barreirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
91 Coimbrões 1 0 0 1 -1 0
92 Bragança 1 0 0 1 -1 0
93 Cardielense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
94 Vinhais 1 0 0 1 -1 0
95 Monção 1 0 0 1 -1 0
96 Oliveirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
97 Maia Lidador 1 0 0 1 -1 0
98 Fabril Barreiro 1 0 0 1 -1 0
99 São Roque (Açores) 1 0 0 1 -1 0
100 Tondela 1 0 0 1 -1 0
101 União Lamas 1 0 0 1 -1 0
102 Maritimo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
103 Olímpico do Montijo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
104 Salgueiros 1 0 0 1 -1 0
105 Viana Alentejo 1 0 0 1 -1 0
106 Velense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
107 Acad. Coimbra/S.Futebol 1 0 0 1 -1 0
108 Feirense 1 0 0 1 -1 0
109 Portel 1 0 0 1 -1 0
110 Felgueiras 1932 1 0 0 1 -1 0
111 UD da Serra 1 0 0 1 -1 0
112 Valpaços 1 0 0 1 -2 0
113 Vila Cortez 1 0 0 1 -2 0
114 Castrense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
115 Pedrógão São Pedro 1 0 0 1 -2 0
116 Benfica Castelo Branco 1 0 0 1 -2 0
117 Madalena 1 0 0 1 -2 0
118 Camacha 1 0 0 1 -2 0
119 Sacavenense 1 0 0 1 -2 0
120 Peniche 1 0 0 1 -2 0
121 Abrantes e Benfica 1 0 0 1 -2 0
122 Pedras Salgadas 1 0 0 1 -2 0
123 Académico do Fundão 1 0 0 1 -2 0
124 Eléctrico 1 0 0 1 -2 0
125 Fafe 1 0 0 1 -3 0
126 Tocha 1 0 0 1 -3 0
127 Vieirense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
128 Juventude Gaula 1 0 0 1 -3 0
129 O Grandolense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
130 Gavionenses 1 0 0 1 -3 0
131 Ferreiras 1 0 0 1 -3 0
132 Trofense 1 0 0 1 -3 0
133 Rabo Peixe 1 0 0 1 -3 0
134 Macedo Cavaleiros 1 0 0 1 -3 0
135 Lagos 1 0 0 1 -3 0
136 Resende 1 0 0 1 -3 0
137 Oliveira de Frades 1 0 0 1 -3 0
138 Ginásio Figueirense 1 0 0 1 -5 0
139 Praia Milfontes 1 0 0 1 -5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Alpendorada Cinfães
🟨
3′
🟨
8′
1–0 Fábio Rodrigo ⚽
19′
Half-time 1–0
58′
🟨
João Bernardo 🔁
↦ Rafinha
59′
60′
🔁 João Victor
↦ Rafa Fontes
62′
⚽ David Martins 1–1
76′
🔁 Diogo Nunes
↦ Rúben Pereira
77′
🟨
Nani 🔁
↦ Ismael
81′
José Botelho 🔁
↦ Arthur Lima
81′
87′
🔁 Carlos Fernandes
↦ Miguel Lima
87′
🔁 Emanuel Brito
↦ Rúben Vale
🟨
90′
Hugo Meireles 🔁
↦ Fábio Rodrigo
91′
Henrique 🔁
↦ Alex Silva
91′
101′
🔁 Yan Victor
↦ Chiquinho
104′
⚽ João Victor 1–2
João Garcês 🔁
↦ André Moreira
106′
🟨
123′
🟨
123′
123′
🟨
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Alpendorada

16 Postiga
14 Xandão
5 Arthur Lima
3 André Moreira
10 Alex Silva
8 Tavares
45 Rafinha
7 Ismael
93 Nilo
70 Ricky
12 Fábio Rodrigo
Bench (9)
21 João Bernardo
11 Nani
71 José Botelho
2 Hugo Meireles
29 Henrique
9 João Garcês
19 Pany
23 Pepe
32 Titinho

Coach: Nuno Barbosa

Cinfães

1 Ivo Gonçalves
97 Tomazi
55 Assis
18 David Martins
37 Rúben Vale
6 Guilherme Couto
19 Serginho
10 Rafa Fontes
8 Miguel Lima
70 Chiquinho
11 Rúben Pereira
Bench (9)
9 João Victor
28 Diogo Nunes
7 Carlos Fernandes
27 Emanuel Brito
16 Yan Victor
4 Willian Salomão
12 João Frade
20 Tomás Costa
44 Francisco Almeida

Coach: Paulo Mendes

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.