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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Montpellier

T T S T T

0–5

Full-time

Marseille

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

4,5

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

3,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-2,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 36%

14%

57%

Points per game

0,6

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

86%

57%

Both score Ø 71%

71%

Average goals

4,1

3,4

Scored

1,1

2,3

Conceded

3,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,9

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

1,19 xG 3,36

35% Possession 65%

13 Shots 21

5 Shots on target 10

5 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 2

6 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 18

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 18. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+17	+14.3	20
2	Monaco	8	6	2	0	+10	+10.0	20
3	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+8	-1.2	14
4	Lille	8	4	2	2	+5	+3.3	14
5	Lens	8	3	5	0	+5	+4.9	14
6	Reims	8	4	2	2	+3	-3.5	14
7	Lyon	8	4	1	3	+2	+3.8	13
8	Nice	8	2	4	2	+8	+4.2	10
9	Nantes	8	2	4	2	+1	-1.5	10
10	Strasbourg	8	2	4	2	+0	+0.3	10
11	Brest	8	3	1	4	-3	-6.2	10
12	Auxerre	8	3	0	5	-5	-3.3	9
13	Rennes	8	2	2	4	+0	-0.2	8
14	St Etienne	8	2	1	5	-14	-9.4	7
15	Toulouse	8	1	3	4	-4	+5.1	6
16	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-12	-6.8	6
17	Angers	8	0	4	4	-8	-5.5	4
18	Montpellier	7	1	1	5	-13	-8.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+12	+8.2	12
2	Monaco	5	3	2	0	+4	+5.1	11
3	Brest	5	3	1	1	+4	-0.5	10
4	Auxerre	4	3	0	1	+2	+1.9	9
5	Strasbourg	4	2	2	0	+3	+2.0	8
6	Rennes	4	2	1	1	+5	+1.9	7
7	Lille	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.9	7
8	Reims	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.2	7
9	Lyon	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.6	6
10	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.2	6
11	Nice	3	1	2	0	+8	+3.8	5
12	Marseille	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.0	5
13	Lens	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.4	5
14	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+1	+1.8	5
15	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	+3.6	5
16	Montpellier	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.7	4
17	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.9	3
18	Angers	4	0	1	3	-6	-3.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	4	3	0	1	+6	-2.1	9
2	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.0	9
3	Lens	5	2	3	0	+3	+1.4	9
4	Paris SG	4	2	2	0	+5	+6.1	8
5	Lille	4	2	1	1	+4	+4.2	7
6	Reims	4	2	1	1	+2	-3.4	7
7	Lyon	4	2	1	1	+2	+1.2	7
8	Nice	5	1	2	2	+0	+0.5	5
9	Nantes	4	1	2	1	+0	-3.3	5
10	Angers	4	0	3	1	-2	-2.3	3
11	Le Havre	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.9	3
12	Strasbourg	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.8	2
13	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-3	+1.5	1
14	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.1	1
15	St Etienne	4	0	1	3	-13	-9.7	1
16	Auxerre	4	0	0	4	-7	-5.2	0
17	Brest	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.8	0
18	Montpellier	4	0	0	4	-12	-9.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.