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Championship

Referee: G Scott

Nott'm Forest

T S S S S

5–1

Full-time

Swansea

S U U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

0,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

This season — Championship · 42/46 matches

Win Ø 47%

55%

39%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

48%

54%

Both score Ø 46%

43%

48%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

30% Possession 70%

27 Shots 12

17 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 12

12 Corners 4

11 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 3. · Swansea 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	46	28	9	9	+62	93
2	Bournemouth	45	22	15	8	+30	81
3	Nott'm Forest	42	23	8	11	+31	77
4	Sheffield United	45	22	10	13	+20	76
5	Huddersfield	43	21	13	9	+17	76
6	Luton	44	21	12	11	+19	75
7	Middlesbrough	46	21	10	15	+16	73
8	Blackburn	46	19	12	15	+14	69
9	Coventry	46	19	12	15	+8	69
10	Millwall	46	18	15	13	+8	69
11	West Brom	46	18	13	15	+6	67
12	Swansea	46	18	13	15	-1	67
13	Preston	47	17	16	14	-5	67
14	Stoke	46	18	11	17	+9	65
15	Blackpool	45	17	12	16	+5	63
16	QPR	47	18	9	20	-3	63
17	Bristol City	46	15	11	20	-17	56
18	Derby	46	14	13	19	-9	55
19	Hull	46	15	8	23	-6	53
20	Cardiff	46	15	8	23	-15	53
21	Reading	46	14	9	23	-29	51
22	Birmingham	46	11	14	21	-27	47
23	Peterborough	44	8	10	26	-46	34
24	Peterboro	45	8	10	27	-49	34
25	Barnsley	47	6	13	28	-38	31

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	23	14	4	5	+30	46
2	Millwall	23	13	6	4	+16	45
3	Blackburn	23	13	5	5	+17	44
4	West Brom	23	12	8	3	+16	44
5	Middlesbrough	23	14	2	7	+13	44
6	Sheffield United	22	13	4	5	+23	43
7	Derby	23	12	7	4	+10	43
8	Nott'm Forest	22	13	3	6	+19	42
9	Luton	22	12	6	4	+17	42
10	Huddersfield	21	12	6	3	+13	42
11	Bournemouth	22	11	8	3	+18	41
12	Blackpool	23	12	3	8	+7	39
13	Coventry	23	11	5	7	+10	38
14	Swansea	23	10	8	5	+7	38
15	Stoke	23	11	4	8	+9	37
16	Preston	23	9	10	4	+3	37
17	QPR	24	10	6	8	+3	36
18	Bristol City	23	7	9	7	-1	30
19	Reading	23	8	5	10	-8	29
20	Birmingham	23	7	7	9	-5	28
21	Cardiff	23	8	3	12	-3	27
22	Hull	23	7	3	13	-7	24
23	Peterboro	22	5	7	10	-11	22
24	Peterborough	22	5	7	10	-11	22
25	Barnsley	24	5	7	12	-13	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	23	14	5	4	+32	47
2	Bournemouth	23	11	7	5	+12	40
3	Nott'm Forest	20	10	5	5	+12	35
4	Huddersfield	22	9	7	6	+4	34
5	Luton	22	9	6	7	+2	33
6	Sheffield United	23	9	6	8	-3	33
7	Coventry	23	8	7	8	-2	31
8	Preston	24	8	6	10	-8	30
9	Middlesbrough	23	7	8	8	+3	29
10	Hull	23	8	5	10	+1	29
11	Swansea	23	8	5	10	-8	29
12	Stoke	23	7	7	9	+0	28
13	QPR	23	8	3	12	-6	27
14	Cardiff	23	7	5	11	-12	26
15	Bristol City	23	8	2	13	-16	26
16	Blackburn	23	6	7	10	-3	25
17	Blackpool	22	5	9	8	-2	24
18	Millwall	23	5	9	9	-8	24
19	West Brom	23	6	5	12	-10	23
20	Reading	23	6	4	13	-21	22
21	Birmingham	23	4	7	12	-22	19
22	Derby	23	2	6	15	-19	12
23	Peterborough	22	3	3	16	-35	12
24	Peterboro	23	3	3	17	-38	12
25	Barnsley	23	1	6	16	-25	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.