Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Porto
Vizela
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 2–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
31 | 26 | 4 | 1 | +59 | 82 |
| 2 |
Sp Lisbon
|
31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | +42 | 76 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
32 | 22 | 5 | 5 | +47 | 71 |
| 4 |
Sp Braga
|
31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | +20 | 59 |
| 5 |
Gil Vicente
|
31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | +10 | 48 |
| 6 |
Guimaraes
|
31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | +4 | 43 |
| 7 |
Maritimo
|
32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -4 | 37 |
| 8 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | -11 | 37 |
| 9 |
Estoril
|
32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 36 |
| 10 |
Santa Clara
|
31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | -14 | 36 |
| 11 |
Portimonense
|
32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | -14 | 35 |
| 12 |
Famalicao
|
32 | 7 | 12 | 13 | -8 | 33 |
| 13 |
Boavista
|
31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | -14 | 33 |
| 14 |
Vizela
|
31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -16 | 32 |
| 15 |
Arouca
|
32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | -23 | 30 |
| 16 |
Moreirense
|
31 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -19 | 26 |
| 17 |
Tondela
|
31 | 7 | 5 | 19 | -23 | 26 |
| 18 |
Belenenses
|
31 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -30 | 25 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Diogo Costa
G
Z. Sanusi
D
Vitinha
M
Fábio Vieira
M
M. Taremi
M
Pepê Aquino
D
Evanilson
F
Coach: Sérgio Conceição
Igor Julião
D
Kiko Bondoso
F
Ivanildo Fernandes
D
Samú
M
Coach: Álvaro Pacheco
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Sp Braga
Porto
Porto
Portimonense
Guimaraes
Porto
Porto
Santa Clara
Boavista
Porto
Manuel Mota · 73 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,36 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.