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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Nott'm Forest

S S U T U

2–2

Full-time

Swansea

T U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nott'm Forest Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,7

This season — Championship · 43/41 matches

Win Ø 41%

42%

39%

Points per game

1,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

40%

46%

Both score Ø 55%

53%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,4

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

51% Possession 49%

8 Shots 6

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nott'm Forest 5. · Swansea 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	43	25	9	9	+35	84
2	West Brom	44	22	16	6	+33	82
3	Fulham	41	21	10	10	+13	73
4	Brentford	41	21	9	11	+38	72
5	Nott'm Forest	43	18	15	10	+12	69
6	Cardiff	42	17	15	10	+7	66
7	Millwall	44	16	17	11	+4	65
8	Swansea	41	16	15	10	+10	63
9	Preston	44	17	11	16	+3	62
10	Bristol City	44	17	11	16	-4	62
11	Derby	44	16	13	15	-2	61
12	Blackburn	44	16	12	16	+3	60
13	Wigan	44	15	12	17	+1	57
14	Reading	44	15	11	18	+5	56
15	Sheffield Weds	44	15	11	18	-5	56
16	QPR	44	15	9	20	-10	54
17	Stoke	44	14	8	22	-10	50
18	Middlesbrough	44	12	14	18	-12	50
19	Birmingham	43	12	13	18	-17	49
20	Huddersfield	44	12	12	20	-16	48
21	Charlton	43	12	10	21	-11	46
22	Hull	44	12	9	23	-26	45
23	Luton	44	12	9	23	-30	45
24	Barnsley	43	10	13	20	-21	43

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	21	13	5	3	+21	44
2	Brentford	20	12	5	3	+24	41
3	Derby	22	11	8	3	+14	41
4	Fulham	21	13	2	6	+10	41
5	West Brom	22	10	9	3	+17	39
6	Cardiff	21	10	8	3	+11	38
7	Preston	22	11	4	7	+8	37
8	Wigan	22	10	6	6	+10	36
9	Blackburn	22	9	9	4	+8	36
10	Millwall	22	9	8	5	+5	35
11	Nott'm Forest	21	10	4	7	+3	34
12	Stoke	22	10	3	9	+9	33
13	Swansea	21	9	5	7	+6	32
14	Bristol City	22	8	6	8	-3	30
15	Charlton	22	8	5	9	+1	29
16	QPR	22	8	5	9	-1	29
17	Luton	22	7	7	8	-5	28
18	Sheffield Weds	22	7	7	8	-10	28
19	Barnsley	22	6	9	7	-5	27
20	Huddersfield	22	7	6	9	-5	27
21	Middlesbrough	22	6	8	8	-7	26
22	Reading	22	7	4	11	-5	25
23	Birmingham	21	6	6	9	-7	24
24	Hull	22	7	3	12	-7	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	22	12	7	3	+16	43
2	Leeds	22	12	4	6	+14	40
3	Nott'm Forest	22	8	11	3	+9	35
4	Fulham	20	8	8	4	+3	32
5	Bristol City	22	9	5	8	-1	32
6	Brentford	21	9	4	8	+14	31
7	Reading	22	8	7	7	+10	31
8	Swansea	20	7	10	3	+4	31
9	Millwall	22	7	9	6	-1	30
10	Sheffield Weds	22	8	4	10	+5	28
11	Cardiff	21	7	7	7	-4	28
12	Preston	22	6	7	9	-5	25
13	QPR	22	7	4	11	-9	25
14	Birmingham	22	6	7	9	-10	25
15	Blackburn	22	7	3	12	-5	24
16	Middlesbrough	22	6	6	10	-5	24
17	Wigan	22	5	6	11	-9	21
18	Huddersfield	22	5	6	11	-11	21
19	Hull	22	5	6	11	-19	21
20	Derby	22	5	5	12	-16	20
21	Charlton	21	4	5	12	-12	17
22	Stoke	22	4	5	13	-19	17
23	Luton	22	5	2	15	-25	17
24	Barnsley	21	4	4	13	-16	16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.