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Championship

Referee: J Linington

Luton

S S U U U

1–0

Full-time

Nott'm Forest

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Nott'm Forest

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,0

2,8

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+2,5

This season — Championship · 41/37 matches

Win Ø 49%

46%

51%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

54%

51%

Both score Ø 48%

46%

49%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,1

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 4

17 Free kicks against 15

6 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 5. · Nott'm Forest 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	42	27	8	7	+61	89
2	Bournemouth	41	21	12	8	+27	75
3	Sheffield United	41	20	9	12	+18	69
4	Huddersfield	40	19	12	9	+14	69
5	Luton	41	19	11	11	+17	68
6	Middlesbrough	42	20	8	14	+16	68
7	Blackburn	42	18	12	12	+14	66
8	Nott'm Forest	37	19	8	10	+25	65
9	Coventry	43	18	11	14	+9	65
10	West Brom	43	17	12	14	+9	63
11	Swansea	42	18	9	15	-1	63
12	Preston	43	16	15	12	-1	63
13	Millwall	42	16	13	13	+4	61
14	Stoke	43	16	11	16	+8	59
15	QPR	43	17	8	18	-1	59
16	Blackpool	41	15	11	15	-1	56
17	Cardiff	42	15	8	19	-10	53
18	Derby	43	13	13	17	-7	52
19	Bristol City	43	13	10	20	-20	49
20	Hull	43	13	8	22	-9	47
21	Reading	43	13	8	22	-27	47
22	Birmingham	43	11	13	19	-20	46
23	Barnsley	41	6	12	23	-29	30
24	Peterboro	41	6	10	25	-48	28
25	Peterborough	41	6	10	25	-48	28

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	22	13	5	4	+18	44
2	Fulham	21	13	4	4	+28	43
3	Middlesbrough	21	13	2	6	+13	41
4	Sheffield United	20	12	4	4	+23	40
5	West Brom	21	11	7	3	+15	40
6	Derby	21	11	7	3	+11	40
7	Bournemouth	20	11	6	3	+18	39
8	Nott'm Forest	21	12	3	6	+15	39
9	Millwall	21	11	6	4	+12	39
10	Luton	20	11	5	4	+16	38
11	Coventry	22	11	5	6	+13	38
12	Huddersfield	19	11	5	3	+12	38
13	Preston	21	9	9	3	+6	36
14	Blackpool	22	11	3	8	+2	36
15	Swansea	20	10	5	5	+7	35
16	Stoke	21	10	4	7	+9	34
17	QPR	22	9	6	7	+4	33
18	Bristol City	22	7	8	7	-1	29
19	Reading	22	8	4	10	-8	28
20	Cardiff	22	8	3	11	-2	27
21	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	-3	27
22	Barnsley	20	5	7	8	-5	22
23	Peterboro	20	4	7	9	-11	19
24	Peterborough	20	4	7	9	-11	19
25	Hull	21	5	3	13	-11	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	21	14	4	3	+33	46
2	Bournemouth	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Huddersfield	21	8	7	6	+2	31
4	Luton	21	8	6	7	+1	30
5	Hull	22	8	5	9	+2	29
6	Sheffield United	21	8	5	8	-5	29
7	Swansea	22	8	4	10	-8	28
8	Middlesbrough	21	7	6	8	+3	27
9	Coventry	21	7	6	8	-4	27
10	Preston	22	7	6	9	-7	27
11	Nott'm Forest	16	7	5	4	+10	26
12	QPR	21	8	2	11	-5	26
13	Cardiff	20	7	5	8	-8	26
14	Stoke	22	6	7	9	-1	25
15	West Brom	22	6	5	11	-6	23
16	Blackburn	20	5	7	8	-4	22
17	Millwall	21	5	7	9	-8	22
18	Blackpool	19	4	8	7	-3	20
19	Bristol City	21	6	2	13	-19	20
20	Birmingham	22	4	7	11	-17	19
21	Reading	21	5	4	12	-19	19
22	Derby	22	2	6	14	-18	12
23	Peterboro	21	2	3	16	-37	9
24	Peterborough	21	2	3	16	-37	9
25	Barnsley	21	1	5	15	-24	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.