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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Aston Villa

T T T T U

2–0

Full-time

Norwich

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Premier League · 32/33 matches

Win Ø 25%

34%

15%

Points per game

1,2

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

59%

61%

Both score Ø 43%

47%

39%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,4

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

45% Possession 55%

21 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 8

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 15. · Norwich 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	25	7	2	+64	82
2	Man City	33	25	5	3	+59	80
3	Chelsea	33	19	9	5	+40	66
4	Arsenal	33	19	3	11	+12	60
5	Tottenham	33	18	4	11	+18	58
6	Man United	35	15	10	10	+2	55
7	West Ham	34	15	7	12	+8	52
8	Wolves	33	15	4	14	+4	49
9	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
10	Leicester	32	11	9	12	-4	42
11	Brighton	34	9	14	11	-11	41
12	Brentford	34	11	7	16	-8	40
13	Southampton	34	9	13	12	-16	40
14	Crystal Palace	33	8	14	11	+2	38
15	Aston Villa	32	11	4	17	-4	37
16	Leeds	33	8	10	15	-30	34
17	Burnley	33	6	13	14	-16	31
18	Everton	32	8	5	19	-21	29
19	Watford	33	6	4	23	-36	22
20	Norwich	33	5	6	22	-47	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	14	3	0	+38	45
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+37	41
3	Arsenal	17	11	2	4	+13	35
4	Man United	18	9	5	4	+7	32
5	Tottenham	16	10	1	5	+13	31
6	West Ham	17	9	4	4	+8	31
7	Chelsea	16	8	5	3	+14	29
8	Leicester	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Southampton	17	6	7	4	+1	25
11	Crystal Palace	17	5	8	4	+8	23
12	Wolves	16	7	2	7	+2	23
13	Everton	16	7	2	7	+1	23
14	Brentford	17	6	3	8	-1	21
15	Burnley	17	5	6	6	-4	21
16	Aston Villa	15	5	3	7	-1	18
17	Leeds	16	4	5	7	-12	17
18	Brighton	17	3	7	7	-10	16
19	Norwich	17	3	3	11	-22	12
20	Watford	16	2	1	13	-24	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	12	3	1	+22	39
2	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+26	37
3	Chelsea	17	11	4	2	+26	37
4	Tottenham	17	8	3	6	+5	27
5	Wolves	17	8	2	7	+2	26
6	Arsenal	16	8	1	7	-1	25
7	Brighton	17	6	7	4	-1	25
8	Man United	17	6	5	6	-5	23
9	West Ham	17	6	3	8	+0	21
10	Aston Villa	17	6	1	10	-3	19
11	Brentford	17	5	4	8	-7	19
12	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-18	17
13	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
14	Crystal Palace	16	3	6	7	-6	15
15	Watford	17	4	3	10	-12	15
16	Southampton	17	3	6	8	-17	15
17	Leicester	16	3	5	8	-10	14
18	Burnley	16	1	7	8	-12	10
19	Norwich	16	2	3	11	-25	9
20	Everton	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.