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2. Bundesliga

Referee: R Hempel

Elversberg

U T S U S

1–0

Full-time

Fortuna Dusseldorf

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Elversberg Fortuna Dusseldorf

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 44%

60%

27%

Points per game

2,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

53%

Both score Ø 47%

40%

53%

Average goals

2,9

2,5

Scored

1,9

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,06 xG 2,14

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 5

9 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 6

4 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Elversberg 3. · Fortuna Dusseldorf 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	15	11	1	3	+12	+4.3	34
2	Paderborn	16	10	2	4	+10	+4.7	32
3	Elversberg	15	9	3	3	+15	-0.8	30
4	Darmstadt	15	8	5	2	+11	+8.6	29
5	Hannover	16	8	5	3	+9	+3.9	29
6	Kaiserslautern	16	8	3	5	+9	+1.8	27
7	Hertha	16	8	3	5	+5	-1.6	27
8	Karlsruhe	16	6	3	7	-8	-14.0	21
9	Bochum	16	6	2	8	+1	+4.5	20
10	Preußen Münster	15	5	4	6	-3	-0.7	19
11	Nurnberg	15	5	4	6	-4	+0.0	19
12	Bielefeld	16	5	3	8	+3	+0.4	18
13	Holstein Kiel	16	4	5	7	-3	-6.1	17
14	Braunschweig	16	5	2	9	-10	+2.9	17
15	Greuther Furth	16	4	3	9	-17	-3.5	15
16	Magdeburg	16	4	2	10	-9	+2.4	14
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	15	4	2	9	-12	-6.3	14
18	Dresden	16	3	4	9	-9	-0.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	8	6	1	1	+11	+4.8	19
2	Darmstadt	8	5	3	0	+9	+7.7	18
3	Schalke 04	7	6	0	1	+5	+2.6	18
4	Elversberg	7	4	3	0	+9	-0.3	15
5	Paderborn	8	5	0	3	+2	+0.6	15
6	Karlsruhe	8	5	0	3	+0	-6.4	15
7	Bielefeld	9	4	1	4	+7	+6.0	13
8	Preußen Münster	8	3	4	1	+3	-0.8	13
9	Hannover	8	4	1	3	+1	+4.3	13
10	Hertha	8	4	1	3	-1	+0.6	13
11	Bochum	7	4	0	3	+3	+6.6	12
12	Nurnberg	8	3	3	2	+0	+0.5	12
13	Holstein Kiel	7	2	2	3	+0	-0.5	8
14	Braunschweig	8	2	2	4	-6	+5.1	8
15	Greuther Furth	8	2	2	4	-9	-2.2	8
16	Magdeburg	8	2	1	5	-4	+4.0	7
17	Dresden	8	1	2	5	-4	+3.3	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	8	1	2	5	-8	-3.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paderborn	8	5	2	1	+8	+4.1	17
2	Hannover	8	4	4	0	+8	-0.4	16
3	Schalke 04	8	5	1	2	+7	+1.7	16
4	Elversberg	8	5	0	3	+6	-0.5	15
5	Hertha	8	4	2	2	+6	-2.3	14
6	Darmstadt	7	3	2	2	+2	+0.9	11
7	Holstein Kiel	9	2	3	4	-3	-5.6	9
8	Braunschweig	8	3	0	5	-4	-2.2	9
9	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	3	0	4	-4	-3.1	9
10	Bochum	9	2	2	5	-2	-2.1	8
11	Kaiserslautern	8	2	2	4	-2	-3.0	8
12	Dresden	8	2	2	4	-5	-4.0	8
13	Nurnberg	7	2	1	4	-4	-0.5	7
14	Magdeburg	8	2	1	5	-5	-1.6	7
15	Greuther Furth	8	2	1	5	-8	-1.3	7
16	Preußen Münster	7	2	0	5	-6	+0.1	6
17	Karlsruhe	8	1	3	4	-8	-7.6	6
18	Bielefeld	7	1	2	4	-4	-5.5	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.