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Ekstraklasa

Referee: T Kwiatkowski

Motor Lublin

U U S U T

1–1

Full-time

Jagiellonia

S U T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Motor Lublin Jagiellonia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 17/16 matches

Win Ø 37%

24%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

47%

69%

Both score Ø 61%

59%

63%

Average goals

2,9

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,51 xG 2,02

50% Possession 50%

15 Shots 21

1 Shots on target 7

5 Blocked shots 5

6 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Motor Lublin 15. · Jagiellonia 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	18	7	9	2	+9	+2.4	30
2	Gornik Zabrze	18	9	3	6	+5	-3.6	30
3	Rakow	18	9	2	7	+3	+3.0	29
4	Jagiellonia	16	8	4	4	+8	-1.9	28
5	Zaglebie	18	7	7	4	+7	+0.3	28
6	Cracovia	18	7	6	5	+4	+2.9	27
7	Radomiak Radom	18	7	5	6	+5	+0.9	26
8	Lech Poznan	17	6	8	3	+3	+10.3	26
9	Lechia Gdansk	18	7	4	7	+0	-0.1	25
10	Korona Kielce	18	6	6	6	+2	+0.2	24
11	Pogon Szczecin	18	6	3	9	-4	+7.9	21
12	Arka Gdynia	18	6	3	9	-17	-6.4	21
13	Widzew Lodz	18	6	2	10	-2	+2.7	20
14	GKS Katowice	17	6	2	9	-5	-7.8	20
15	Motor Lublin	17	4	8	5	-5	-2.4	20
16	Legia	17	4	7	6	-1	+1.0	19
17	Nieciecza	18	5	4	9	-11	-4.2	19
18	Piast Gliwice	16	4	5	7	-1	-5.2	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Wisla Plock	10	6	3	1	+9	+5.0	21
2	Radomiak Radom	9	6	2	1	+15	+5.4	20
3	Arka Gdynia	9	6	2	1	+4	-3.3	20
4	Zaglebie	9	5	4	0	+13	+4.1	19
5	Gornik Zabrze	9	6	1	2	+10	+2.1	19
6	Lechia Gdansk	9	5	2	2	+9	+2.4	17
7	Pogon Szczecin	9	5	1	3	+6	+8.3	16
8	Cracovia	9	4	4	1	+5	+5.7	16
9	Jagiellonia	7	5	0	2	+7	+0.6	15
10	Widzew Lodz	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.3	14
11	Korona Kielce	9	4	2	3	+3	+2.4	14
12	Legia	8	3	4	1	+5	+0.6	13
13	Lech Poznan	9	3	4	2	+1	+6.6	13
14	GKS Katowice	9	4	1	4	+0	-3.5	13
15	Motor Lublin	8	2	5	1	+1	+4.2	11
16	Rakow	9	3	2	4	-1	+0.8	11
17	Piast Gliwice	8	2	3	3	+0	-1.1	9
18	Nieciecza	9	2	2	5	-7	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	9	6	0	3	+4	+2.1	18
2	Lech Poznan	8	3	4	1	+2	+3.7	13
3	Jagiellonia	9	3	4	2	+1	-2.4	13
4	Cracovia	9	3	2	4	-1	-2.8	11
5	Nieciecza	9	3	2	4	-4	-1.9	11
6	Gornik Zabrze	9	3	2	4	-5	-5.8	11
7	Korona Kielce	9	2	4	3	-1	-2.2	10
8	Wisla Plock	8	1	6	1	+0	-2.7	9
9	Motor Lublin	9	2	3	4	-6	-6.6	9
10	Zaglebie	9	2	3	4	-6	-3.8	9
11	Piast Gliwice	8	2	2	4	-1	-4.1	8
12	Lechia Gdansk	9	2	2	5	-9	-2.5	8
13	GKS Katowice	8	2	1	5	-5	-4.4	7
14	Widzew Lodz	9	2	0	7	-5	+0.5	6
15	Legia	9	1	3	5	-6	+0.4	6
16	Radomiak Radom	9	1	3	5	-10	-4.5	6
17	Pogon Szczecin	9	1	2	6	-10	-0.4	5
18	Arka Gdynia	9	0	1	8	-21	-3.0	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.