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Ligue 1

Referee: Willy Delajod

Lens

S S S S S

2–0

Full-time

Nice

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,5

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

0,8

2,5

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 53%

73%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

67%

60%

Both score Ø 60%

53%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,65 xG 0,76

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 5

0 Offside 2

17 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 2. · Nice 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	11	3	2	+21	+15.7	36
2	Lens	15	11	1	3	+13	+6.6	34
3	Marseille	15	9	2	4	+20	+13.4	29
4	Lille	15	9	2	4	+12	+9.8	29
5	Lyon	16	8	3	5	+6	+6.4	27
6	Rennes	16	7	6	3	+3	-1.1	27
7	Toulouse	16	6	5	5	+5	+3.3	23
8	Monaco	15	7	2	6	+0	+3.2	23
9	Strasbourg	15	7	1	7	+5	+6.4	22
10	Angers	16	6	4	6	-1	-11.4	22
11	Brest	16	5	4	7	-6	+0.2	19
12	Nice	15	5	2	8	-8	-10.9	17
13	Lorient	15	4	5	6	-9	+0.9	17
14	Paris FC	16	4	4	8	-8	-5.8	16
15	Le Havre	16	3	6	7	-9	-2.8	15
16	Auxerre	15	3	3	9	-10	-4.8	12
17	Nantes	16	2	5	9	-14	-15.6	11
18	Metz	16	3	2	11	-20	-13.4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+14	+9.2	19
2	Lille	8	6	1	1	+10	+8.8	19
3	Lens	7	6	0	1	+10	+8.5	18
4	Lyon	8	6	0	2	+8	+8.3	18
5	Marseille	7	5	2	0	+15	+12.1	17
6	Rennes	8	5	2	1	+10	+6.4	17
7	Monaco	8	5	1	2	+4	+5.7	16
8	Strasbourg	7	5	0	2	+10	+10.0	15
9	Lorient	8	4	3	1	+3	+4.1	15
10	Angers	8	4	2	2	+5	-1.3	14
11	Nice	8	4	1	3	+0	-2.5	13
12	Toulouse	8	3	3	2	+3	+4.8	12
13	Brest	8	3	3	2	+1	+6.3	12
14	Le Havre	8	2	4	2	+1	+6.0	10
15	Auxerre	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.2	10
16	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-3	+0.1	8
17	Metz	8	2	2	4	-3	-1.5	8
18	Nantes	8	1	2	5	-7	-6.7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	5	2	2	+7	+6.5	17
2	Lens	8	5	1	2	+3	-1.9	16
3	Marseille	8	4	0	4	+5	+1.2	12
4	Toulouse	8	3	2	3	+2	-1.5	11
5	Lille	7	3	1	3	+2	+1.0	10
6	Rennes	8	2	4	2	-7	-7.5	10
7	Lyon	8	2	3	3	-2	-1.9	9
8	Paris FC	8	2	2	4	-5	-5.9	8
9	Angers	8	2	2	4	-6	-10.1	8
10	Monaco	7	2	1	4	-4	-2.5	7
11	Strasbourg	8	2	1	5	-5	-3.6	7
12	Brest	8	2	1	5	-7	-6.1	7
13	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-7	-8.9	6
14	Le Havre	8	1	2	5	-10	-8.8	5
15	Nice	7	1	1	5	-8	-8.5	4
16	Metz	8	1	0	7	-17	-11.9	3
17	Auxerre	7	0	2	5	-10	-6.1	2
18	Lorient	7	0	2	5	-12	-3.2	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.