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Bundesliga

Referee: Felix Zwayer

Freiburg

U S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Dortmund

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Dortmund

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 47%

31%

62%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

69%

38%

Both score Ø 54%

62%

46%

Average goals

3,2

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,50 xG 0,93

57% Possession 43%

21 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 0

5 Offside 0

11 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Freiburg 10. · Dortmund 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	13	12	1	0	+40	+26.8	37
2	RB Leipzig	14	9	2	3	+13	+8.2	29
3	Dortmund	13	8	4	1	+12	+7.4	28
4	Leverkusen	14	8	2	4	+11	+9.1	26
5	Hoffenheim	14	8	2	4	+9	+1.5	26
6	Ein Frankfurt	14	7	3	4	+0	+1.4	24
7	Stuttgart	13	7	1	5	-1	-0.5	22
8	Union Berlin	14	5	3	6	-4	-3.2	18
9	FC Koln	14	4	4	6	-1	-2.5	16
10	Freiburg	13	4	4	5	-2	+1.8	16
11	M'gladbach	14	4	4	6	-4	-1.1	16
12	Werder Bremen	13	4	4	5	-6	-7.0	16
13	Wolfsburg	14	4	3	7	-4	-3.4	15
14	Hamburg	14	4	3	7	-9	-3.1	15
15	Augsburg	14	4	1	9	-11	-10.4	13
16	St Pauli	14	3	2	9	-13	-10.2	11
17	Heidenheim	14	3	2	9	-17	-6.9	11
18	Mainz	13	1	3	9	-13	-7.9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+25	+13.0	21
2	RB Leipzig	6	6	0	0	+15	+7.3	18
3	Leverkusen	8	5	1	2	+12	+10.4	16
4	Stuttgart	6	5	0	1	+1	-1.0	15
5	Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+7	+4.5	14
6	Hamburg	7	4	1	2	+4	+2.3	13
7	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+3	+4.2	13
8	Hoffenheim	7	4	0	3	+4	+0.1	12
9	Union Berlin	8	3	3	2	+2	-0.0	12
10	Freiburg	6	3	2	1	+5	+6.3	11
11	Werder Bremen	6	3	2	1	+0	+1.9	11
12	Augsburg	7	3	0	4	-6	-6.1	9
13	FC Koln	6	2	2	2	+4	+3.7	8
14	Heidenheim	7	2	2	3	-5	-2.5	8
15	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-7	-3.3	7
16	M'gladbach	8	1	3	4	-9	-5.0	6
17	Wolfsburg	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.2	5
18	Mainz	7	0	2	5	-6	-3.4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	6	5	1	0	+15	+13.8	16
2	Hoffenheim	7	4	2	1	+5	+1.4	14
3	Dortmund	7	4	2	1	+5	+2.8	14
4	RB Leipzig	8	3	2	3	-2	+0.9	11
5	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	2	2	-3	-2.8	11
6	M'gladbach	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.9	10
7	Wolfsburg	7	3	1	3	+1	-1.2	10
8	Leverkusen	6	3	1	2	-1	-1.3	10
9	FC Koln	8	2	2	4	-5	-6.1	8
10	Stuttgart	7	2	1	4	-2	+0.5	7
11	Union Berlin	6	2	0	4	-6	-3.2	6
12	Werder Bremen	7	1	2	4	-6	-8.9	5
13	Freiburg	7	1	2	4	-7	-4.5	5
14	Augsburg	7	1	1	5	-5	-4.2	4
15	St Pauli	7	1	1	5	-6	-7.0	4
16	Mainz	6	1	1	4	-7	-4.5	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	0	6	-12	-4.4	3
18	Hamburg	7	0	2	5	-13	-5.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.