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Ligue 1
Referee: J Pignard
Auxerre
T T U U S
3–4
Full-time
Lille
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Auxerre Lille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
0,7
1,7
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 40%
20%
60%
Points per game
0,8
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
40%
40%
Both score Ø 40%
40%
40%
Average goals
2,1
3,1
Scored
0,7
1,9
Conceded
1,4
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,97 xG 0,52
45% Possession 55%
18 Shots 8
8 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
10 Corners 3
21 Free kicks against 10
5 Yellow cards 2
2 Red cards 2
The table before the match Auxerre 16. · Lille 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 16 11 3 2 +21 +15.7 36
2 Lens 15 11 1 3 +13 +6.6 34
3 Marseille 15 9 2 4 +20 +13.4 29
4 Lille 15 9 2 4 +12 +9.8 29
5 Lyon 16 8 3 5 +6 +6.4 27
6 Rennes 16 7 6 3 +3 -1.1 27
7 Toulouse 16 6 5 5 +5 +3.3 23
8 Monaco 15 7 2 6 +0 +3.2 23
9 Strasbourg 15 7 1 7 +5 +6.4 22
10 Angers 16 6 4 6 -1 -11.4 22
11 Brest 16 5 4 7 -6 +0.2 19
12 Nice 15 5 2 8 -8 -10.9 17
13 Lorient 15 4 5 6 -9 +0.9 17
14 Paris FC 16 4 4 8 -8 -5.8 16
15 Le Havre 16 3 6 7 -9 -2.8 15
16 Auxerre 15 3 3 9 -10 -4.8 12
17 Nantes 16 2 5 9 -14 -15.6 11
18 Metz 16 3 2 11 -20 -13.4 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Auxerre Lille
9′
H. Haraldsson 0–1
Josué Casimir 🟨
17′
38′
🟥 Nathan Ngoy
Half-time 0–1
S. Mara 🔁
↦ R. Matondo
46′
46′
🔁 C. Mbemba
↦ O. Sahraoui
Clement Akpa 🟨
49′
50′
🟨 Aïssa Mandi
1–1 L. Sinayoko
K. Danois
57′
Clement Akpa 🟨
60′
Clement Akpa 🟥
60′
A. Diousse 🔁
↦ J. Casimir
63′
1–2 C. Mbemba
own goal
66′
75′
🔁 T. Santos
↦ T. Meunier
75′
🔁 F. Correia
↦ H. Haraldsson
75′
🔁 S. Diaoune
↦ O. Giroud
77′
N. Bentaleb 1–3
80′
S. Diaoune 1–4
G. Mensah 🔁
↦ F. Oppegard
81′
82′
🟨 Félix Correia
2–4 L. Sinayoko
83′
84′
🔁 N. Mukau
↦ E. Mbappe
86′
B. Andre 2–5
R. Perraud
Kévin Danois 🟨
88′
Oussama El Azzouzi 🟥
88′
88′
🟥 Romain Perraud
L. Coulibaly 🔁
↦ K. Danois
90′
Lasso Coulibaly 🟨
93′
Full-time 2–5

Line-ups

Auxerre

4-3-3
16 D. Leon G
27 L. Sy D
20 S. Diomande D
92 C. Akpa D
22 F. Oppegard D
34 R. Matondo M
17 O. El Azzouzi M
5 K. Danois M
7 J. Casimir F
19 D. Namaso F
10 L. Sinayoko F
Bench (9)
40 T. De Percin
4 F. Sierralta
14 G. Mensah
29 M. Senaya
18 A. Diousse
21 L. Coulibaly
23 I. Osman
9 S. Mara
36 T. Devernois

Coach: Christophe Pelissier

Lille

4-2-3-1
1 B. Ozer G
12 T. Meunier D
3 N. Ngoy D
23 A. Mandi D
15 R. Perraud D
21 B. Andre M
6 N. Bentaleb M
8 E. Mbappe M
10 H. Haraldsson M
11 O. Sahraoui M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (8)
16 A. Bodart
18 C. Mbemba
22 T. Santos
17 N. Mukau
28 U. Raghouber
14 M. Broholm
27 F. Correia
35 S. Diaoune

Coach: Bruno Genesio

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
4,41
U
3,62
B ✓
1,78
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,86
U2,5
1,87
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Pignard · 145 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,29 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.