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Ligue 1
Referee: F Letexier
Marseille
S S U T S
1–0
Full-time
Monaco
T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Monaco
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
67%
33%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,7
2,8
Scored
2,5
1,0
Conceded
1,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
-0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 54%
60%
47%
Points per game
1,9
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
67%
60%
Both score Ø 57%
47%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,5
Scored
2,3
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,79 xG 2,21
58% Possession 42%
18 Shots 18
8 Shots on target 7
4 Blocked shots 7
5 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 7
0 Offside 6
11 Free kicks against 11
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Marseille 4. · Monaco 9.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Lens 16 12 1 3 +15 +7.4 37
2 Paris SG 16 11 3 2 +21 +15.7 36
3 Lille 16 10 2 4 +13 +7.3 32
4 Marseille 15 9 2 4 +20 +13.4 29
5 Lyon 16 8 3 5 +6 +6.4 27
6 Rennes 16 7 6 3 +3 -1.1 27
7 Strasbourg 16 7 2 7 +5 +6.5 23
8 Toulouse 16 6 5 5 +5 +3.3 23
9 Monaco 15 7 2 6 +0 +3.2 23
10 Angers 16 6 4 6 -1 -11.4 22
11 Brest 16 5 4 7 -6 +0.2 19
12 Lorient 16 4 6 6 -9 +0.7 18
13 Nice 16 5 2 9 -10 -11.8 17
14 Paris FC 16 4 4 8 -8 -5.8 16
15 Le Havre 16 3 6 7 -9 -2.8 15
16 Auxerre 16 3 3 10 -11 -2.4 12
17 Nantes 16 2 5 9 -14 -15.6 11
18 Metz 16 3 2 11 -20 -13.4 11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Marseille Monaco
Geoffrey Kondogbia 🟨
40′
Half-time 0–0
M. O'Riley 🔁
↦ G. Kondogbia
46′
I. Paixao 🔁
↦ B. Pavard
58′
L. Balerdi 🔁
↦ M. Murillo
58′
64′
🟨 Vanderson
73′
🔁 J. Teze
↦ A. Golovin
81′
ℹ️ Folarin Balogun
VAR: Goal cancelled
B. Nadir 🔁
↦ A. Vermeeren
81′
1–0 M. Greenwood
P. Hojbjerg
82′
Mason Greenwood 🟨
83′
D. Bakola 🔁
↦ P. Aubameyang
86′
86′
🔁 M. Biereth
↦ T. Minamino
86′
🔁 G. Ilenikhena
↦ L. Camara
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Marseille

4-2-3-1
1 G. Rulli G
62 M. Murillo D
28 B. Pavard D
21 N. Aguerd D
33 Emerson D
19 G. Kondogbia M
23 P. Hojbjerg M
10 M. Greenwood M
18 A. Vermeeren M
22 T. Weah M
97 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (9)
12 J. De Lange
4 C. Egan-Riley
14 I. Paixao
17 M. O'Riley
26 B. Nadir
5 L. Balerdi
8 A. Gomes
50 D. Bakola
34 R. Vaz

Coach: Habib Beye

Monaco

4-2-3-1
1 L. Hradecky G
2 Vanderson D
5 T. Kehrer D
22 M. Salisu D
12 Caio Henrique D
15 L. Camara M
6 D. Zakaria M
11 M. Akliouche M
18 T. Minamino M
10 A. Golovin M
9 F. Balogun F
Bench (9)
16 P. Kohn
4 J. Teze
14 M. Biereth
3 E. Dier
17 S. Idumbo
28 M. Coulibaly
13 C. Mawissa
20 K. Ouattara
19 G. Ilenikhena

Coach: Sebastien Pocognoli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,86
U
3,89
B
3,67
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,47
U2,5 ✓
2,59
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

F Letexier · 176 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.