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Championship

Referee: M Salisbury

Reading

T S T U U

3–0

Full-time

Derby

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,2

1,7

Scored

1,0

0,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Championship · 21/22 matches

Win Ø 28%

29%

27%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

48%

36%

Both score Ø 49%

52%

45%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

59% Possession 41%

14 Shots 16

7 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 7

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Reading 19. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	22	14	7	1	+22	49
2	Leeds	22	14	5	3	+22	47
3	Preston	23	11	5	7	+8	38
4	Sheffield Weds	22	10	6	6	+13	36
5	Bristol City	22	9	8	5	+2	35
6	Fulham	20	10	4	6	+10	34
7	Nott'm Forest	21	9	7	5	+6	34
8	Swansea	21	9	7	5	+5	34
9	Blackburn	22	10	4	8	+2	34
10	Millwall	22	8	9	5	+0	33
11	Cardiff	22	8	8	6	+2	32
12	QPR	22	9	4	9	-7	31
13	Brentford	20	9	3	8	+12	30
14	Hull	22	8	6	8	+3	30
15	Birmingham	22	8	4	10	-7	28
16	Derby	22	6	8	8	-7	26
17	Charlton	22	6	6	10	-2	24
18	Middlesbrough	23	5	9	9	-11	24
19	Reading	21	6	5	10	-2	23
20	Huddersfield	22	5	7	10	-10	22
21	Luton	22	6	2	14	-18	20
22	Stoke	23	5	3	15	-12	18
23	Wigan	22	4	6	12	-15	18
24	Barnsley	22	3	7	12	-16	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	12	9	2	1	+16	29
2	Leeds	11	7	3	1	+11	24
3	Cardiff	10	7	2	1	+9	23
4	West Brom	10	6	4	0	+13	22
5	Blackburn	11	6	3	2	+5	21
6	Fulham	11	6	2	3	+8	20
7	Derby	12	5	5	2	+5	20
8	Millwall	10	5	4	1	+5	19
9	Sheffield Weds	10	5	4	1	+5	19
10	Middlesbrough	12	5	4	3	+0	19
11	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+11	18
12	Hull	11	5	2	4	+4	17
13	Swansea	11	5	2	4	+4	17
14	Birmingham	11	5	2	4	+1	17
15	Bristol City	11	4	4	3	+2	16
16	Charlton	12	4	3	5	+1	15
17	QPR	11	4	3	4	-3	15
18	Wigan	11	4	3	4	-3	15
19	Luton	10	4	2	4	+0	14
20	Nott'm Forest	10	4	2	4	-1	14
21	Barnsley	12	3	5	4	-3	14
22	Reading	10	4	0	6	-2	12
23	Stoke	12	3	2	7	-4	11
24	Huddersfield	11	2	4	5	-4	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	12	8	3	1	+9	27
2	Leeds	11	7	2	2	+11	23
3	Nott'm Forest	11	5	5	1	+7	20
4	Bristol City	11	5	4	2	+0	19
5	Sheffield Weds	12	5	2	5	+8	17
6	Swansea	10	4	5	1	+1	17
7	QPR	11	5	1	5	-4	16
8	Fulham	9	4	2	3	+2	14
9	Millwall	12	3	5	4	-5	14
10	Hull	11	3	4	4	-1	13
11	Blackburn	11	4	1	6	-3	13
12	Brentford	10	4	0	6	+1	12
13	Huddersfield	11	3	3	5	-6	12
14	Reading	11	2	5	4	+0	11
15	Birmingham	11	3	2	6	-8	11
16	Charlton	10	2	3	5	-3	9
17	Cardiff	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Preston	11	2	3	6	-8	9
19	Stoke	11	2	1	8	-8	7
20	Derby	10	1	3	6	-12	6
21	Luton	12	2	0	10	-18	6
22	Middlesbrough	11	0	5	6	-11	5
23	Wigan	11	0	3	8	-12	3
24	Barnsley	10	0	2	8	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.