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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Reading

T S T T U

3–3

Full-time

Derby

U S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,2

This season — Championship · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

41%

44%

Both score Ø 47%

53%

41%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

71% Possession 29%

16 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Reading 18. · Derby 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	33	22	7	4	+33	73
2	Cardiff	33	19	7	7	+22	64
3	Derby	32	16	10	6	+22	58
4	Fulham	31	15	10	6	+19	55
5	Bristol City	33	14	12	7	+9	54
6	Aston Villa	30	15	8	7	+17	53
7	Sheffield United	33	16	4	13	+7	52
8	Preston	33	12	15	6	+8	51
9	Middlesbrough	31	15	5	11	+13	50
10	Brentford	33	13	11	9	+10	50
11	Leeds	33	13	7	13	+3	46
12	Norwich	33	12	10	11	-3	46
13	Millwall	33	11	12	10	+4	45
14	Ipswich	33	13	6	14	+1	45
15	QPR	33	10	9	14	-10	39
16	Sheffield Weds	33	8	13	12	-5	37
17	Nott'm Forest	33	11	4	18	-15	37
18	Reading	32	8	9	15	-7	33
19	Bolton	33	8	9	16	-22	33
20	Hull	33	7	11	15	-6	32
21	Birmingham	33	8	6	19	-27	30
22	Burton Albion	33	7	8	18	-33	29
23	Barnsley	32	6	10	16	-16	28
24	Sunderland	33	5	11	17	-24	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	17	12	3	2	+20	39
2	Cardiff	16	11	3	2	+19	36
3	Aston Villa	15	9	5	1	+16	32
4	Derby	17	9	5	3	+16	32
5	Sheffield United	17	10	2	5	+11	32
6	Millwall	17	8	6	3	+9	30
7	Middlesbrough	16	9	3	4	+8	30
8	Fulham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
9	Brentford	17	7	8	2	+13	29
10	Bristol City	17	8	5	4	+8	29
11	QPR	16	8	4	4	+3	28
12	Ipswich	17	8	3	6	+8	27
13	Preston	16	6	7	3	+4	25
14	Bolton	17	7	4	6	-1	25
15	Leeds	16	6	5	5	+4	23
16	Nott'm Forest	17	7	1	9	-6	22
17	Hull	16	5	6	5	+8	21
18	Sheffield Weds	16	5	6	5	+0	21
19	Norwich	16	5	6	5	+0	21
20	Birmingham	16	6	2	8	-7	20
21	Barnsley	17	3	6	8	-8	15
22	Reading	15	3	4	8	-6	13
23	Sunderland	16	2	5	9	-11	11
24	Burton Albion	16	2	3	11	-20	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	16	10	4	2	+13	34
2	Cardiff	17	8	4	5	+3	28
3	Derby	15	7	5	3	+6	26
4	Fulham	16	7	5	4	+5	26
5	Preston	17	6	8	3	+4	26
6	Bristol City	16	6	7	3	+1	25
7	Norwich	17	7	4	6	-3	25
8	Leeds	17	7	2	8	-1	23
9	Aston Villa	15	6	3	6	+1	21
10	Brentford	16	6	3	7	-3	21
11	Middlesbrough	15	6	2	7	+5	20
12	Reading	17	5	5	7	-1	20
13	Sheffield United	16	6	2	8	-4	20
14	Burton Albion	17	5	5	7	-13	20
15	Ipswich	16	5	3	8	-7	18
16	Sheffield Weds	17	3	7	7	-5	16
17	Millwall	16	3	6	7	-5	15
18	Nott'm Forest	16	4	3	9	-9	15
19	Sunderland	17	3	6	8	-13	15
20	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13
21	QPR	17	2	5	10	-13	11
22	Hull	17	2	5	10	-14	11
23	Birmingham	17	2	4	11	-20	10
24	Bolton	16	1	5	10	-21	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.