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Premier League

Referee: Craig Pawson

Aston Villa

S U T T T

1–3

Full-time

Southampton

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 24%

24%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 71%

71%

Both score Ø 68%

65%

71%

Average goals

3,1

3,2

Scored

1,4

1,1

Conceded

1,8

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

56% Possession 44%

19 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 17. · Southampton 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	16	1	0	+28	49
2	Leicester	17	12	3	2	+29	39
3	Man City	17	11	2	4	+28	35
4	Chelsea	17	9	2	6	+6	29
5	Tottenham	17	7	5	5	+8	26
6	Man United	17	6	7	4	+6	25
7	Sheffield United	17	6	7	4	+5	25
8	Wolves	17	5	9	3	+3	24
9	Arsenal	18	5	8	5	-3	23
10	Crystal Palace	17	6	5	6	-4	23
11	Newcastle	17	6	4	7	-7	22
12	Burnley	17	6	3	8	-7	21
13	Brighton	17	5	5	7	-4	20
14	Bournemouth	17	5	4	8	-5	19
15	Everton	18	5	4	9	-9	19
16	West Ham	17	5	4	8	-9	19
17	Aston Villa	17	4	3	10	-7	15
18	Southampton	17	4	3	10	-18	15
19	Norwich	17	3	3	11	-17	12
20	Watford	17	1	6	10	-23	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Leicester	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Tottenham	8	5	2	1	+12	17
4	Man City	8	5	1	2	+14	16
5	Man United	9	4	4	1	+7	16
6	Burnley	9	5	0	4	+0	15
7	Chelsea	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Everton	9	4	2	3	+0	14
9	Sheffield United	9	4	1	4	+2	13
10	Newcastle	8	3	4	1	+2	13
11	Wolves	9	3	4	2	+1	13
12	Arsenal	9	3	4	2	-1	13
13	Brighton	8	3	3	2	+2	12
14	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-1	12
15	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	+0	11
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-3	9
17	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Norwich	8	2	1	5	-7	7
19	Southampton	9	2	1	6	-15	7
20	Watford	8	0	4	4	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	8	7	1	0	+11	22
2	Man City	9	6	1	2	+14	19
3	Leicester	8	5	1	2	+15	16
4	Chelsea	8	5	0	3	+3	15
5	Sheffield United	8	2	6	0	+3	12
6	West Ham	9	3	3	3	-3	12
7	Wolves	8	2	5	1	+2	11
8	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	-3	11
9	Arsenal	9	2	4	3	-2	10
10	Bournemouth	9	3	1	5	-2	10
11	Man United	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Tottenham	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Newcastle	9	3	0	6	-9	9
14	Southampton	8	2	2	4	-3	8
15	Brighton	9	2	2	5	-6	8
16	Burnley	8	1	3	4	-7	6
17	Everton	9	1	2	6	-9	5
18	Norwich	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Watford	9	1	2	6	-14	5
20	Aston Villa	9	1	1	7	-7	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.