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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Derby

U S S S S

2–4

Full-time

Reading

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 40%

50%

29%

Points per game

1,8

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

43%

36%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

49% Possession 51%

13 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 0

0 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 12

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 5. · Reading 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	16	11	2	3	+14	35
2	Cardiff	16	9	4	3	+9	31
3	Bristol City	16	8	6	2	+10	30
4	Sheffield United	15	10	0	5	+7	30
5	Derby	14	7	4	3	+6	25
6	Leeds	15	7	2	6	+7	23
7	Middlesbrough	14	6	4	4	+7	22
8	Aston Villa	13	6	4	3	+7	22
9	Norwich	15	6	4	5	-4	22
10	Preston	15	5	6	4	+3	21
11	Ipswich	14	7	0	7	+1	21
12	QPR	15	5	6	4	+1	21
13	Nott'm Forest	15	7	0	8	-5	21
14	Sheffield Weds	15	5	5	5	+1	20
15	Brentford	15	4	7	4	+2	19
16	Fulham	15	4	7	4	+0	19
17	Millwall	15	4	5	6	+1	17
18	Hull	15	4	4	7	+1	16
19	Barnsley	14	4	4	6	-1	16
20	Reading	14	4	3	7	-3	15
21	Birmingham	15	3	3	9	-15	12
22	Sunderland	15	1	7	7	-10	10
23	Burton Albion	15	2	4	9	-22	10
24	Bolton	15	1	5	9	-17	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	8	6	1	1	+7	19
2	Cardiff	8	5	3	0	+10	18
3	Sheffield United	7	6	0	1	+7	18
4	QPR	8	5	2	1	+5	17
5	Sheffield Weds	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Bristol City	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Derby	6	4	1	1	+8	13
8	Millwall	7	4	1	2	+5	13
9	Ipswich	7	4	0	3	+3	12
10	Preston	8	3	3	2	+2	12
11	Nott'm Forest	7	4	0	3	+0	12
12	Leeds	8	3	2	3	+5	11
13	Aston Villa	5	3	2	0	+4	11
14	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+2	11
15	Birmingham	8	3	2	3	-3	11
16	Hull	8	3	1	4	+7	10
17	Norwich	8	2	3	3	-2	9
18	Brentford	7	1	5	1	+0	8
19	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	-1	8
20	Reading	7	2	2	3	-1	8
21	Fulham	8	1	5	2	-2	8
22	Burton Albion	8	2	1	5	-10	7
23	Bolton	7	1	1	5	-8	4
24	Sunderland	8	0	3	5	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolves	8	5	1	2	+7	16
2	Bristol City	8	4	3	1	+5	15
3	Cardiff	8	4	1	3	-1	13
4	Norwich	7	4	1	2	-2	13
5	Leeds	7	4	0	3	+2	12
6	Sheffield United	8	4	0	4	+0	12
7	Derby	8	3	3	2	-2	12
8	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	+5	11
9	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	+3	11
10	Brentford	8	3	2	3	+2	11
11	Fulham	7	3	2	2	+2	11
12	Preston	7	2	3	2	+1	9
13	Ipswich	7	3	0	4	-2	9
14	Nott'm Forest	8	3	0	5	-5	9
15	Barnsley	7	2	2	3	+0	8
16	Reading	7	2	1	4	-2	7
17	Sunderland	7	1	4	2	-4	7
18	Hull	7	1	3	3	-6	6
19	Sheffield Weds	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	QPR	7	0	4	3	-4	4
21	Millwall	8	0	4	4	-4	4
22	Bolton	8	0	4	4	-9	4
23	Burton Albion	7	0	3	4	-12	3
24	Birmingham	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.