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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Reading

S S T T S

2–3

Full-time

Birmingham

T T U U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 35%

33%

37%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

50%

37%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 18. · Birmingham 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	20	13	4	3	+20	43
2	West Brom	19	12	6	1	+17	42
3	Fulham	18	10	4	4	+12	34
4	Nott'm Forest	19	9	6	4	+10	33
5	Bristol City	19	8	8	3	+4	32
6	Preston	19	9	4	6	+8	31
7	Swansea	18	8	6	4	+7	30
8	Sheffield Weds	19	8	5	6	+8	29
9	Brentford	18	8	3	7	+12	27
10	Cardiff	18	7	6	5	+2	27
11	Blackburn	19	8	3	8	-1	27
12	Millwall	20	6	9	5	-2	27
13	Hull	19	7	5	7	+4	26
14	Derby	19	6	7	6	-5	25
15	Birmingham	19	7	4	8	-5	25
16	QPR	19	7	4	8	-9	25
17	Charlton	19	6	5	8	+0	23
18	Reading	18	6	3	9	-1	21
19	Huddersfield	20	4	6	10	-11	18
20	Middlesbrough	19	3	8	8	-11	17
21	Luton	19	5	2	12	-15	17
22	Wigan	19	4	4	11	-14	16
23	Stoke	19	4	2	13	-13	14
24	Barnsley	19	2	6	11	-17	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	10	7	2	1	+14	23
2	Fulham	10	6	2	2	+9	20
3	Leeds	9	6	2	1	+9	20
4	West Brom	9	5	4	0	+9	19
5	Cardiff	8	6	1	1	+8	19
6	Derby	10	5	4	1	+6	19
7	Millwall	10	5	4	1	+5	19
8	Blackburn	10	5	3	2	+4	18
9	Birmingham	9	5	2	2	+4	17
10	Bristol City	9	4	4	1	+5	16
11	Sheffield Weds	9	4	4	1	+4	16
12	Brentford	9	4	3	2	+10	15
13	Hull	10	4	2	4	+3	14
14	Charlton	10	4	2	4	+2	14
15	Nott'm Forest	8	4	1	3	+3	13
16	Swansea	9	4	1	4	+2	13
17	Middlesbrough	10	3	4	3	-2	13
18	Wigan	9	4	1	4	-3	13
19	Reading	9	4	0	5	-1	12
20	QPR	10	3	3	4	-5	12
21	Luton	9	3	2	4	-1	11
22	Huddersfield	11	2	4	5	-4	10
23	Barnsley	10	2	4	4	-5	10
24	Stoke	10	2	1	7	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	11	7	2	2	+11	23
2	West Brom	10	7	2	1	+8	23
3	Nott'm Forest	11	5	5	1	+7	20
4	Swansea	9	4	5	0	+5	17
5	Bristol City	10	4	4	2	-1	16
6	Fulham	8	4	2	2	+3	14
7	Sheffield Weds	10	4	1	5	+4	13
8	QPR	9	4	1	4	-4	13
9	Brentford	9	4	0	5	+2	12
10	Hull	9	3	3	3	+1	12
11	Reading	9	2	3	4	+0	9
12	Charlton	9	2	3	4	-2	9
13	Blackburn	9	3	0	6	-5	9
14	Cardiff	10	1	5	4	-6	8
15	Preston	9	2	2	5	-6	8
16	Huddersfield	9	2	2	5	-7	8
17	Millwall	10	1	5	4	-7	8
18	Birmingham	10	2	2	6	-9	8
19	Stoke	9	2	1	6	-6	7
20	Derby	9	1	3	5	-11	6
21	Luton	10	2	0	8	-14	6
22	Middlesbrough	9	0	4	5	-9	4
23	Wigan	10	0	3	7	-11	3
24	Barnsley	9	0	2	7	-12	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.