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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Barcelona

S S S U U

4–1

Full-time

Alaves

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Alaves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

3,2

Scored

2,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,2

This season — La Liga · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 47%

65%

29%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

71%

41%

Both score Ø 50%

59%

41%

Average goals

3,7

2,5

Scored

2,5

1,1

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

69% Possession 31%

8 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 4

8 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Alaves 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	11	3	3	+23	36
2	Real Madrid	17	10	6	1	+21	36
3	Sevilla	18	10	4	4	+6	34
4	Getafe	17	8	6	3	+10	30
5	Ath Madrid	17	7	8	2	+8	29
6	Sociedad	17	8	4	5	+8	28
7	Ath Bilbao	17	7	6	4	+7	27
8	Valencia	17	7	6	4	+3	27
9	Granada	18	7	3	8	-1	24
10	Osasuna	17	5	8	4	+2	23
11	Levante	17	7	2	8	-4	23
12	Betis	17	6	5	6	-5	23
13	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	+5	22
14	Alaves	17	5	4	8	-6	19
15	Valladolid	17	4	7	6	-6	19
16	Eibar	18	5	4	9	-10	19
17	Mallorca	18	4	3	11	-14	15
18	Celta	17	3	5	9	-11	14
19	Leganes	17	2	4	11	-16	10
20	Espanol	17	2	4	11	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	8	7	1	0	+21	22
2	Real Madrid	8	6	2	0	+14	20
3	Ath Bilbao	9	6	2	1	+10	20
4	Getafe	9	5	3	1	+10	18
5	Ath Madrid	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Valencia	9	4	5	0	+6	17
7	Betis	9	5	2	2	+4	17
8	Granada	9	5	1	3	+5	16
9	Alaves	9	4	3	2	+6	15
10	Sociedad	8	4	2	2	+8	14
11	Levante	8	4	2	2	+3	14
12	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	+3	14
13	Mallorca	10	4	2	4	+0	14
14	Villarreal	8	3	4	1	+7	13
15	Osasuna	8	3	4	1	+4	13
16	Eibar	9	4	0	5	-4	12
17	Valladolid	7	2	4	1	+4	10
18	Celta	9	2	3	4	-4	9
19	Leganes	9	2	1	6	-6	7
20	Espanol	9	0	2	7	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sevilla	10	6	2	2	+3	20
2	Real Madrid	9	4	4	1	+7	16
3	Barcelona	9	4	2	3	+2	14
4	Sociedad	9	4	2	3	+0	14
5	Getafe	8	3	3	2	+0	12
6	Ath Madrid	8	2	5	1	+1	11
7	Osasuna	9	2	4	3	-2	10
8	Valencia	8	3	1	4	-3	10
9	Villarreal	9	3	0	6	-2	9
10	Levante	9	3	0	6	-7	9
11	Valladolid	10	2	3	5	-10	9
12	Granada	9	2	2	5	-6	8
13	Espanol	8	2	2	4	-7	8
14	Ath Bilbao	8	1	4	3	-3	7
15	Eibar	9	1	4	4	-6	7
16	Betis	8	1	3	4	-9	6
17	Celta	8	1	2	5	-7	5
18	Alaves	8	1	1	6	-12	4
19	Leganes	8	0	3	5	-10	3
20	Mallorca	8	0	1	7	-14	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.