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Championship

Referee: Peter Bankes

Derby

U S U T T

3–2

Full-time

Reading

T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,3

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

This season — Championship · 26/24 matches

Win Ø 50%

42%

58%

Points per game

1,5

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

23%

54%

Both score Ø 37%

19%

54%

Average goals

1,7

2,7

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 3

4 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 14

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Derby 6. · Reading 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	26	17	6	3	+24	57
2	Newcastle	26	18	1	7	+29	55
3	Leeds	26	15	3	8	+11	48
4	Reading	24	14	4	6	+8	46
5	Huddersfield	24	14	4	6	+3	46
6	Derby	26	11	7	8	+5	40
7	Preston	26	11	6	9	+3	39
8	Sheffield Weds	25	11	6	8	+2	39
9	Barnsley	26	11	5	10	+4	38
10	Fulham	25	9	10	6	+8	37
11	Norwich	26	11	4	11	+3	37
12	Birmingham	26	9	9	8	-5	36
13	Aston Villa	26	8	11	7	+1	35
14	Ipswich	26	9	7	10	-3	34
15	Brentford	26	9	6	11	+0	33
16	QPR	27	9	6	12	-11	33
17	Wolves	26	8	8	10	-1	32
18	Cardiff	25	8	6	11	-10	30
19	Bristol City	26	8	3	15	-3	27
20	Nott'm Forest	26	7	6	13	-8	27
21	Burton Albion	26	6	7	13	-10	25
22	Blackburn	26	6	6	14	-12	24
23	Wigan	26	5	7	14	-9	22
24	Rotherham	26	4	4	18	-29	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	13	10	2	1	+20	32
2	Leeds	14	9	2	3	+10	29
3	Reading	13	8	3	2	+10	27
4	Huddersfield	11	8	2	1	+7	26
5	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+13	25
6	Sheffield Weds	12	8	1	3	+5	25
7	Newcastle	12	8	0	4	+13	24
8	Aston Villa	12	6	6	0	+9	24
9	Ipswich	14	6	5	3	+5	23
10	Derby	13	6	4	3	+7	22
11	Birmingham	14	6	4	4	+1	22
12	Preston	14	6	3	5	+4	21
13	Brentford	13	5	4	4	+6	19
14	Barnsley	13	5	4	4	+2	19
15	Bristol City	13	6	1	6	+1	19
16	Nott'm Forest	12	5	3	4	+2	18
17	Fulham	13	4	5	4	+2	17
18	Burton Albion	13	5	2	6	+1	17
19	Cardiff	13	5	2	6	-4	17
20	Blackburn	13	4	4	5	-2	16
21	QPR	14	4	4	6	-7	16
22	Rotherham	13	4	3	6	-3	15
23	Wolves	13	4	3	6	-4	15
24	Wigan	12	2	3	7	-6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+16	31
2	Brighton	13	7	4	2	+4	25
3	Fulham	12	5	5	2	+6	20
4	Huddersfield	13	6	2	5	-4	20
5	Barnsley	13	6	1	6	+2	19
6	Leeds	12	6	1	5	+1	19
7	Reading	11	6	1	4	-2	19
8	Preston	12	5	3	4	-1	18
9	Derby	13	5	3	5	-2	18
10	Wolves	13	4	5	4	+3	17
11	QPR	13	5	2	6	-4	17
12	Sheffield Weds	13	3	5	5	-3	14
13	Brentford	13	4	2	7	-6	14
14	Birmingham	12	3	5	4	-6	14
15	Wigan	14	3	4	7	-3	13
16	Cardiff	12	3	4	5	-6	13
17	Norwich	14	3	3	8	-10	12
18	Ipswich	12	3	2	7	-8	11
19	Aston Villa	14	2	5	7	-8	11
20	Nott'm Forest	14	2	3	9	-10	9
21	Bristol City	13	2	2	9	-4	8
22	Blackburn	13	2	2	9	-10	8
23	Burton Albion	13	1	5	7	-11	8
24	Rotherham	13	0	1	12	-26	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.