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Bundesliga

Referee: P Ittrich

Mainz

S S T T S

0–1

Full-time

Leverkusen

U S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Leverkusen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

2,2

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

1,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 41%

38%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

88%

56%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

3,9

2,7

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

2,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

39% Possession 61%

17 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 6

6 Offside 3

8 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Mainz 14. · Leverkusen 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	16	10	4	2	+26	34
2	M'gladbach	16	11	1	4	+15	34
3	Bayern Munich	16	9	3	4	+22	30
4	Dortmund	17	8	6	3	+17	30
5	Schalke 04	16	8	5	3	+8	29
6	Hoffenheim	17	8	3	6	-3	27
7	Freiburg	16	7	4	5	+4	25
8	Leverkusen	16	7	4	5	+1	25
9	Wolfsburg	16	6	6	4	+2	24
10	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-1	23
11	Union Berlin	16	6	2	8	-3	20
12	Ein Frankfurt	16	5	3	8	-1	18
13	Hertha	16	5	3	8	-7	18
14	Mainz	16	6	0	10	-13	18
15	FC Koln	16	4	2	10	-14	14
16	Werder Bremen	16	3	5	8	-17	14
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	16	3	3	10	-19	12
18	Paderborn	16	2	3	11	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	9	7	1	1	+12	22
2	Dortmund	8	5	3	0	+17	18
3	Bayern Munich	8	5	1	2	+17	16
4	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	3	2	+5	15
5	Schalke 04	8	4	3	1	+3	15
6	Union Berlin	9	5	0	4	+1	15
7	RB Leipzig	7	4	2	1	+12	14
8	Augsburg	8	4	2	2	+5	14
9	Freiburg	8	4	2	2	+3	14
10	Leverkusen	9	3	4	2	+2	13
11	Wolfsburg	9	3	4	2	+0	13
12	Hoffenheim	9	4	1	4	-5	13
13	Hertha	7	3	0	4	-3	9
14	Mainz	7	3	0	4	-4	9
15	FC Koln	7	2	1	4	-3	7
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	2	1	4	-7	7
17	Werder Bremen	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Paderborn	8	1	1	6	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	9	6	2	1	+14	20
2	Bayern Munich	8	4	2	2	+5	14
3	Schalke 04	8	4	2	2	+5	14
4	Hoffenheim	8	4	2	2	+2	14
5	M'gladbach	7	4	0	3	+3	12
6	Dortmund	9	3	3	3	+0	12
7	Leverkusen	7	4	0	3	-1	12
8	Wolfsburg	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Freiburg	8	3	2	3	+1	11
10	Hertha	9	2	3	4	-4	9
11	Werder Bremen	8	2	3	3	-6	9
12	Augsburg	8	2	3	3	-6	9
13	Mainz	9	3	0	6	-9	9
14	FC Koln	9	2	1	6	-11	7
15	Union Berlin	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Paderborn	8	1	2	5	-9	5
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Ein Frankfurt	7	1	0	6	-6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.