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Eliteserien

Referee: Mohammad Usman Aslam

Lillestrom

S S U S T

4–0

Full-time

Sarpsborg 08

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lillestrom Sarpsborg 08

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

1,8

Scored

1,5

0,8

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,37 xG 0,81

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lillestrom 4. · Sarpsborg 08 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tromso	8	6	1	1	+7	+7.5	19
2	Viking	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.6	18
3	Bodo/Glimt	6	4	1	1	+8	+5.6	13
4	Lillestrom	6	4	1	1	+5	+3.0	13
5	Brann	8	3	1	4	+7	+4.2	10
6	Molde	6	3	1	2	+5	+3.1	10
7	Ham-Kam	5	3	0	2	-1	-0.5	9
8	Kristiansund	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.8	7
9	Sandefjord	6	2	1	3	-3	-1.6	7
10	KFUM Oslo	6	2	1	3	-4	-1.6	7
11	Valerenga	6	2	1	3	-4	-5.4	7
12	Fredrikstad	7	2	1	4	-6	-5.3	7
13	Sarpsborg 08	6	1	2	3	-1	+1.3	5
14	Rosenborg	7	1	2	4	-8	-3.7	5
15	Aalesund	6	0	3	3	-6	-6.8	3
16	Start	7	0	3	4	-10	-4.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tromso	6	4	1	1	+5	+7.0	13
2	Viking	4	4	0	0	+12	+4.3	12
3	Molde	4	3	0	1	+8	+3.1	9
4	Ham-Kam	4	3	0	1	+2	+0.3	9
5	Bodo/Glimt	2	2	0	0	+8	+5.2	6
6	KFUM Oslo	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.5	6
7	Kristiansund	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.3	6
8	Fredrikstad	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.4	4
9	Rosenborg	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.8	4
10	Brann	3	1	0	2	+0	+2.3	3
11	Lillestrom	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.2	3
12	Valerenga	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.1	3
13	Start	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.2	2
14	Sarpsborg 08	3	0	2	1	-1	+0.6	2
15	Aalesund	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.9	2
16	Sandefjord	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lillestrom	4	3	1	0	+5	+1.8	10
2	Brann	5	2	1	2	+7	+1.8	7
3	Bodo/Glimt	4	2	1	1	+0	+0.4	7
4	Tromso	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.5	6
5	Viking	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.3	6
6	Sandefjord	4	2	0	2	-1	-0.6	6
7	Valerenga	3	1	1	1	-2	-2.3	4
8	Sarpsborg 08	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.7	3
9	Fredrikstad	4	1	0	3	-7	-3.9	3
10	Kristiansund	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.5	1
11	Molde	2	0	1	1	-3	+0.0	1
12	Aalesund	2	0	1	1	-3	-5.0	1
13	KFUM Oslo	3	0	1	2	-6	-1.0	1
14	Rosenborg	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.5	1
15	Start	5	0	1	4	-10	-5.8	1
16	Ham-Kam	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.