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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Sassuolo

U S T S U

2–0

Full-time

Milan

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sassuolo Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,0

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 47%

38%

56%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

56%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

53%

44%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,4

Conceded

1,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,58 xG 0,24

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 7

4 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Sassuolo 11. · Milan 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	34	25	4	5	+49	+33.3	79
2	Napoli	35	21	7	7	+19	+11.7	70
3	Milan	34	19	10	5	+21	+17.5	67
4	Juventus	34	18	10	6	+28	+29.6	64
5	Como	35	17	11	7	+31	+24.5	62
6	Roma	34	19	4	11	+19	+8.7	61
7	Atalanta	35	14	13	8	+15	+15.5	55
8	Bologna	35	14	7	14	+1	-1.3	49
9	Lazio	34	12	12	10	+4	-3.8	48
10	Udinese	35	13	8	14	-3	-10.1	47
11	Sassuolo	34	13	7	14	-3	-14.5	46
12	Parma	34	10	12	12	-15	-18.9	42
13	Torino	35	11	8	16	-19	-7.8	41
14	Genoa	35	10	10	15	-8	-1.5	40
15	Fiorentina	34	8	13	13	-7	+6.4	37
16	Cagliari	35	9	10	16	-13	-15.2	37
17	Lecce	35	8	8	19	-23	-24.7	32
18	Cremonese	34	6	10	18	-25	-22.2	28
19	Verona	34	3	10	21	-33	-8.7	19
20	Pisa	35	2	12	21	-38	-18.5	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	13	2	2	+32	+24.3	41
2	Napoli	17	12	4	1	+15	+2.8	40
3	Juventus	17	10	6	1	+21	+19.9	36
4	Roma	17	11	3	3	+17	+10.1	36
5	Como	18	9	6	3	+19	+20.0	33
6	Atalanta	18	9	6	3	+11	+16.6	33
7	Milan	17	9	5	3	+6	+10.6	32
8	Lazio	17	7	6	4	+4	+1.1	27
9	Sassuolo	17	8	2	7	-2	-8.3	26
10	Torino	17	7	3	7	-3	-3.5	24
11	Udinese	18	6	5	7	-2	-1.0	23
12	Cagliari	17	6	4	7	+0	-5.0	22
13	Genoa	18	6	4	8	-3	+2.8	22
14	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-4	+2.0	21
15	Fiorentina	17	4	7	6	+0	+9.9	19
16	Parma	17	4	6	7	-9	-9.3	18
17	Lecce	17	4	5	8	-11	-5.7	17
18	Cremonese	16	2	7	7	-10	-3.7	13
19	Pisa	18	2	4	12	-14	-4.7	10
20	Verona	17	1	5	11	-13	-2.5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	17	12	2	3	+17	+9.0	38
2	Milan	17	10	5	2	+15	+6.9	35
3	Napoli	18	9	3	6	+4	+8.9	30
4	Como	17	8	5	4	+12	+4.6	29
5	Juventus	17	8	4	5	+7	+9.7	28
6	Bologna	17	8	4	5	+5	-3.2	28
7	Roma	17	8	1	8	+2	-1.4	25
8	Udinese	17	7	3	7	-1	-9.1	24
9	Parma	17	6	6	5	-6	-9.7	24
10	Atalanta	17	5	7	5	+4	-1.1	22
11	Lazio	17	5	6	6	+0	-4.9	21
12	Sassuolo	17	5	5	7	-1	-6.2	20
13	Genoa	17	4	6	7	-5	-4.3	18
14	Fiorentina	17	4	6	7	-7	-3.5	18
15	Torino	18	4	5	9	-16	-4.2	17
16	Lecce	18	4	3	11	-12	-19.0	15
17	Cagliari	18	3	6	9	-13	-10.2	15
18	Cremonese	18	4	3	11	-15	-18.5	15
19	Verona	17	2	5	10	-20	-6.2	11
20	Pisa	17	0	8	9	-24	-13.7	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.