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Eliteserien

Referee: M Grøtta

Lillestrom

T S S T S

2–2

Full-time

Sarpsborg 08

T T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lillestrom Sarpsborg 08

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

100%

83%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 14/15 matches

Win Ø 38%

43%

33%

Points per game

1,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

64%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

70% Possession 30%

14 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 1

6 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lillestrom 8. · Sarpsborg 08 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	17	11	4	2	+23	+13.2	37
2	Brann	17	8	6	3	+5	+10.9	30
3	Molde	16	8	4	4	+13	+11.0	28
4	Viking	15	8	4	3	+9	+4.9	28
5	Fredrikstad	16	7	6	3	+8	+1.2	27
6	KFUM Oslo	16	5	7	4	+0	+5.1	22
7	Stromsgodset	15	5	4	6	-4	-1.9	19
8	Lillestrom	14	6	1	7	-6	-3.7	19
9	Rosenborg	15	5	3	7	-7	-2.5	18
10	Ham-Kam	16	4	5	7	+0	-1.5	17
11	Kristiansund	15	4	5	6	-3	-7.3	17
12	Haugesund	14	5	2	7	-5	-4.5	17
13	Tromso	16	5	2	9	-6	-8.1	17
14	Sarpsborg 08	15	5	2	8	-8	-6.5	17
15	Odd	16	3	5	8	-14	-9.5	14
16	Sandefjord	15	3	4	8	-5	-0.7	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	8	5	3	0	+12	+5.6	18
2	Viking	8	5	2	1	+6	+2.3	17
3	Brann	9	5	2	2	+4	+9.9	17
4	Molde	9	4	2	3	+6	+8.9	14
5	Rosenborg	7	4	1	2	+1	+1.5	13
6	Kristiansund	7	3	3	1	+3	+3.3	12
7	Fredrikstad	7	2	4	1	+2	+1.9	10
8	Stromsgodset	7	2	3	2	+1	+1.7	9
9	Sandefjord	7	3	0	4	+0	-0.2	9
10	Tromso	9	3	0	6	-2	-0.6	9
11	Haugesund	8	3	0	5	-4	-1.3	9
12	Sarpsborg 08	8	2	1	5	-8	-1.3	7
13	Lillestrom	7	2	1	4	-8	-3.6	7
14	Odd	8	1	3	4	-7	-1.8	6
15	Ham-Kam	7	1	2	4	-3	-1.8	5
16	KFUM Oslo	8	0	5	3	-6	+5.5	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	9	6	1	2	+11	+7.6	19
2	Fredrikstad	9	5	2	2	+6	-0.7	17
3	KFUM Oslo	8	5	2	1	+6	-0.4	17
4	Molde	7	4	2	1	+7	+2.0	14
5	Brann	8	3	4	1	+1	+1.0	13
6	Ham-Kam	9	3	3	3	+3	+0.3	12
7	Lillestrom	7	4	0	3	+2	-0.1	12
8	Viking	7	3	2	2	+3	+2.6	11
9	Sarpsborg 08	7	3	1	3	+0	-5.1	10
10	Stromsgodset	8	3	1	4	-5	-3.6	10
11	Haugesund	6	2	2	2	-1	-3.2	8
12	Tromso	7	2	2	3	-4	-7.5	8
13	Odd	8	2	2	4	-7	-7.7	8
14	Kristiansund	8	1	2	5	-6	-10.6	5
15	Rosenborg	8	1	2	5	-8	-4.0	5
16	Sandefjord	8	0	4	4	-5	-0.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.