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Ligue 1
Referee: C Turpin
Lyon
T U S S S
4–2
Full-time
Rennes
U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Rennes
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
3,2
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 54%
55%
52%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
52%
68%
Both score Ø 52%
48%
55%
Average goals
2,6
3,1
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
1,0
1,4
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,4
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

3,17 xG 0,84
50% Possession 50%
16 Shots 8
9 Shots on target 5
4 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 5
1 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 14
0 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lyon 4. · Rennes 5.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 31 22 4 5 +43 +42.3 70
2 Lens 31 20 4 7 +28 +23.1 64
3 Lille 32 17 7 8 +16 +17.4 58
4 Lyon 31 17 6 8 +16 +5.2 57
5 Rennes 31 16 8 7 +12 +3.3 56
6 Monaco 32 16 6 10 +8 +8.2 54
7 Marseille 32 16 5 11 +15 +13.3 53
8 Strasbourg 31 13 7 11 +9 +7.4 46
9 Lorient 32 10 12 10 -5 -2.4 42
10 Toulouse 32 11 8 13 +0 +0.3 41
11 Paris FC 32 10 11 11 -3 -11.8 41
12 Brest 31 10 8 13 -10 -6.6 38
13 Angers 32 9 7 16 -19 -21.2 34
14 Le Havre 32 6 14 12 -13 -12.8 32
15 Nice 32 7 10 15 -22 -17.1 31
16 Auxerre 32 6 10 16 -13 -11.1 28
17 Nantes 32 5 8 19 -22 -12.1 23
18 Metz 32 3 7 22 -40 -25.4 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lyon Rennes
6′
M. Tamari 0–1
E. Lepaul
23′
🟨 Esteban Lepaul
1–1 R. Yaremchuk
C. Tolisso
37′
40′
🟨 Brice Samba
2–1 C. Tolisso
42′
Half-time 2–2
48′
E. Lepaul 2–2
M. Tamari
3–2 A. Moreira
Abner Vinicius
52′
P. Sulc 🔁
↦ R. Yaremchuk
70′
70′
🔁 L. Blas
↦ S. Szymanski
71′
🔁 M. Nagida
↦ A. Seidu
4–2 Endrick
C. Tolisso
75′
82′
🟨 Quentin Merlin
E. Nuamah 🔁
↦ Endrick
84′
R. Kluivert 🔁
↦ T. Morton
84′
M. de Carvalho 🔁
↦ K. Merah
84′
87′
🔁 Y. Zabiri
↦ E. Lepaul
87′
🔁 N. Mukiele
↦ M. Tamari
87′
🔁 D. Cisse
↦ M. Camara
N. Nartey 🔁
↦ Abner Vinicius
93′
Full-time 4–2

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,16
U
3,59
B
2,99
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,65
U2,5
2,14
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.